• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1556

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 06:06:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 230606
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230606=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-230830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1556
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern IL...extreme
    southeastern WI...southwestern Lower MI...and northern IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 230606Z - 230830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for
    severe hail early this morning. Watch issuance is unlikely at this
    time.

    DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection has recently developed
    over southern Lake Michigan and vicinity. Based on recent VWP
    estimates from KLOT, this activity is being aided by a modest, 25-30
    kt west-southwesterly low-level jet. Latest MRMS MESH suggests a
    couple of the strongest cores may have marginally severe hail.
    Current expectations are for this band to shift into parts of
    southwestern Lower MI and northern IN over the next few hours.
    Around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and modest (20-30 kt) deep-layer
    shear should prove adequate for a continued isolated threat for
    severe hail. Various RAP forecast soundings and latest mesoanalysis
    indicate substantial MLCIN is present early this morning where
    thunderstorms are ongoing. The potential for strong/damaging winds
    should remain low given the strength of the near-surface stable
    layer. With expectations that the hail threat should remain rather isolated/marginal, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7hxQTZ7MLJ0PuuolPqMAxhREhiJAsantCbo29A_Ji_A_Hxjb7XX7V3_Q5qLH4zPq-ip8a9iRk= iirf0uxCWXaBOLFzVU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

    LAT...LON 42408838 42628786 42528719 42048486 41268487 41218561
    41588748 42088839 42408838=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 23:49:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 142349
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142348=20
    MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1556
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0648 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...North-central and northeast Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493...

    Valid 142348Z - 150115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts remain possible with a line of
    storms moving into north-central and northeast Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong/severe storms continues to sag
    southward into northern Oklahoma this evening. Strong buoyancy is in
    place in northeastern Oklahoma per objective mesoanalysis. Given
    deep-layer shear parallel to the line, there has been less tendency
    for stronger bowing segments to develop within this line as compared
    to activity in southeastern Kansas and MRMS radar mosaic shows
    outflow slightly ahead of the line. So far, Oklahoma mesonet wind
    gust data shows several 40-55 mph wind gusts in northern Oklahoma.
    Even so, strong cold-pool dynamics (surface observations showing
    around 20 F drop in temperature behind the line) will support a
    continued threat for strong/severe wind gusts over the next 1-3
    hours.

    ..Wendt.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7dj5M6c6C1J_NuhUUZwGXZLSjCJRn5ePdEB2i3m2I25-j3vEgu0dWG_L4HJZN7lgzd8OluUd0= lH9UDwVHOSb48VJTRU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36659748 36789734 36919694 36959641 37009553 36939472
    36669458 36269477 35929546 35919694 36219739 36659748=20


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