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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1497

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 17, 2022 00:41:15
    ACUS11 KWNS 170041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170040=20
    NEZ000-170215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1497
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central and southern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...

    Valid 170040Z - 170215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells with a history of severe gusts and hail will
    likely continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts (some
    significant) and large hail across portions of central and southern
    Nebraska this evening. Additional storm development is possible
    though uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0025 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several well-organized supercell thunderstorms ongoing near a baroclinic
    zone/outflow boundary across Custer and Valley/Greeley Counties in
    central Nebraska. Over the last hour, these storms have produced
    measured gusts of 64kt at KODX and 78kt at KBBW, along with several
    reports of severe hail. Despite modest lapse rates and vertical
    shear, a moderate to strongly unstable environment (2500-3000 J/kg
    of MLCAPE), will likely continue to support these storms as they
    pose a risk for damaging outflow winds (some 75+ mph) and large hail
    over the next couple of hours. The risk for significant wind gusts
    may persist as some additional storm development and upscale growth
    into a small MCS is possible to the south and east. However,
    convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain with southern extent
    due to warming mid-level temperatures, decreasing vertical shear and
    increasing inhibition.

    ..Lyons.. 07/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8KnC7CleV7lIM9c6mposhVcQu0nTDJtMtQy5LN5prhKNA1f1PuKdbBpLNqfFen6fhUZuePHyG= z1LbyvdZBU9tmM2hco$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41620026 41589784 40059690 40089936 41620026=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 11, 2023 17:59:14
    ACUS11 KWNS 111759
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111758=20
    MIZ000-111930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1497
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

    Areas affected...East-central Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111758Z - 111930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms has developed across
    Ontario along a cold front. 18Z Surface analysis shows this cold
    front extending across central Michigan. However, thunderstorm
    activity has been more sparse, likely related to weaker ascent away
    from the mid-level shortwave trough and weaker low-level convergence
    along the front. However, some destabilization has occurred south of
    this front with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in
    the mid 60s yielding around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The DTX VWP shows
    around 30 knots of westerly flow above 2km which will provide enough
    shear for some organization, but not enough for a more substantial
    threat. A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds are
    possible, but the expectation for mostly unorganized/weak intensity
    storms and the limited duration of the threat, make a severe
    thunderstorm watch unlikely.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FHYNrC5tpJ09IF_3MwAwxzanNmFHfhGG-_EHRySPV5Q4OmJ-bJgLhLkxEMtJ9pDHWtSoC6CL= dR5x-AiiqgIWhoeJq8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...

    LAT...LON 42628294 42738364 43158414 43688397 44008373 44188272
    44078236 43788210 43388197 43078221 42968239 42628294=20


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