• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1495

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 16, 2022 20:54:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 162054
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162053=20
    NEZ000-162300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1495
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

    Areas affected...North-central into southeast NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 162053Z - 162300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail and locally damaging wind gusts
    remain possible into this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...The earlier supercell that moved from north-central
    into northeast NE has weakened, but recent redevelopment has been
    noted across north-central NE near a weak surface boundary, and also
    near the differential heating zone/outflow boundary left in the wake
    of earlier convection. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear
    of 30-40 kt will continue to support a threat of organized storms. A
    couple of supercells capable of hail and locally damaging wind gusts
    may emerge out of redeveloping convection and spread southeastward,
    with some cell mergers and clustering possible by early evening.=20

    Relatively weak midlevel lapse rates, warm temperatures aloft, and
    weak low-level flow may continue to temper the severe hail/wind
    threat to some extent, but any sustained supercells and/or organized
    clusters that can develop could pose a sufficient threat to support
    watch issuance later this afternoon.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_3x2vKkham5YfaJgYG6OAUg8MWcYTBQK6VdCXS9jtnDYF0yeqgmB4fYfyeFu_PSJSkb4gtx1B= RYLP4pPdG_ItHj2wak$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42889972 42429843 41819720 41219654 40839671 40719745
    40839824 41329945 41689994 41860020 42440092 42740054
    42889972=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 11, 2023 04:28:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 110428
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110427=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-110630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1495
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1127 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...central/south central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...

    Valid 110427Z - 110630Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to spread south-southeastward across areas near/west of Hutchinson and Wichita
    through 1-2 AM CDT. Further organization and intensification
    accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts is not
    certain, but at least possible.

    DISCUSSION...Consolidation of a couple of clusters of thunderstorms
    is ongoing, with the cluster emerging from southwestern
    Nebraska/northwestern Kansas now progressing southeast of the
    Russell and Great Bend vicinities around 30-35 kt, and the cluster
    emerging from south central Nebraska continuing across and south of
    the Smith Center area at a bit slower motion. Based on these
    motions, inflow into the updrafts is emanating from the southeast
    through south, where level moisture advection may be contributing to
    moderate potential instability.=20=20

    Forcing for ascent along the cold pools, aided by weak low-level
    warm advection, has been contributing to the maintenance of
    convection, but warm advection closer to the 700 mb level across
    central Kansas may also be contributing to increasing inhibition,
    particularly coupled with boundary-layer cooling. To this point
    weak low-level lapse rates may have also been a limiting factor with
    respect to the development of severe wind gusts. Strengthening of
    the associated MCV will probably be needed to support a substantive
    increase in strong surface gusts. Given the potential instability
    this remains possible, though uncertain as convection spreads toward
    the Hutchinson and Wichita areas through 06-07Z.

    ..Kerr.. 07/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4rX3Xz_GRExqZI8lTp-pbh1JykkJwPpnPYfRA-M8gO93ChucjyhusvhZIlou9o5WscTNdwJen= IjqDSwrp8Yj0G5gAKI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 39449825 39039770 38229724 37229729 36949793 37429866
    37919909 38059908 38389838 39449825=20


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