ACUS11 KWNS 162035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162034=20
KSZ000-COZ000-162230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Areas affected...East-central/southeast CO into far western KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 162034Z - 162230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are
possible this afternoon into the early evening. Watch issuance is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage and
intensity this afternoon near the higher terrain of
east-central/southeast CO, and also near a weak surface confluence
zone across the plains of east-central CO. Strong heating is
supporting MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg (per recent mesoanalyses), with a
continued increase in storm coverage possible with time as MLCINH
continues to weaken. Modest westerly flow aloft is supporting
effective shear of 20-30 kt, and some occasional weak storm
organization may be noted with the strongest updrafts through the
afternoon. In the short term, steep low-level lapse rates and rather
large DCAPE will support localized downbursts. By early evening,
storm clustering with expanding outflow is possible as storms
approach western KS, with a continued threat of isolated severe
gusts. With storms expected to remain relatively disorganized
overall, watch issuance is currently considered unlikely.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8EhjtDLYzTjhvZUvNy1DoaH5ynbQUDQZ5Y7jJTWD8fl09jIAbiH4znOJVf4VsbedWYeRJwfF4= E4LpGK1inI3sXWMIuc$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38900455 39250318 39160171 38600137 37850130 37600160
37500217 37510315 37610445 38800464 38900455=20
=3D =3D =3D
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