• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1494

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 16, 2022 20:35:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 162035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162034=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-162230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1494
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

    Areas affected...East-central/southeast CO into far western KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162034Z - 162230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are
    possible this afternoon into the early evening. Watch issuance is
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage and
    intensity this afternoon near the higher terrain of
    east-central/southeast CO, and also near a weak surface confluence
    zone across the plains of east-central CO. Strong heating is
    supporting MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg (per recent mesoanalyses), with a
    continued increase in storm coverage possible with time as MLCINH
    continues to weaken. Modest westerly flow aloft is supporting
    effective shear of 20-30 kt, and some occasional weak storm
    organization may be noted with the strongest updrafts through the
    afternoon. In the short term, steep low-level lapse rates and rather
    large DCAPE will support localized downbursts. By early evening,
    storm clustering with expanding outflow is possible as storms
    approach western KS, with a continued threat of isolated severe
    gusts. With storms expected to remain relatively disorganized
    overall, watch issuance is currently considered unlikely.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8EhjtDLYzTjhvZUvNy1DoaH5ynbQUDQZ5Y7jJTWD8fl09jIAbiH4znOJVf4VsbedWYeRJwfF4= E4LpGK1inI3sXWMIuc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38900455 39250318 39160171 38600137 37850130 37600160
    37500217 37510315 37610445 38800464 38900455=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 11, 2023 02:35:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 110235
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110235=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-110330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1494
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0935 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern Minnesota...northern Iowa...and far
    western Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...471...

    Valid 110235Z - 110330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469, 471
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW471.

    DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms moving across southeastern
    Minnesota has been producing severe hail, generally 1-1.75 inches,
    over the last hour. This broken line of storms further intensified
    as it absorbed a northward moving outflow. As this tracks southward
    further into WW471, potential for more severe hail is likely with
    secondary potential for scattered damaging winds. Given the
    uncertainty of the downstream environment, with overturn and
    mid-level CIN from previous storms, it is not clear how long this
    line will maintain severe characteristics extending into WW469. The
    severe threat will persist across southern Minnesota into northern
    Iowa over to far western Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_TCiq-yDnfK86RYRHTELEjnSrMGtcR74Nt0gpU6EIUrFdYn1kiTdqWqPGwMumrOKzOVcaH_nB= HOST6DUNXWbzBwNEiM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43859440 44089416 44189356 44339296 44379245 44359204
    44369175 44359144 44329109 44099099 43989095 43859091
    43639086 43499087 43409088 43339093 43169106 43139110
    42979139 42959172 42909218 42809274 42819319 42809347
    42859378 42899402 42979421 43169432 43359447 43859440=20


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