• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1555

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 04:27:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 230427
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230427=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-230530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1555
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of east central North Dakota into
    northwestern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486...

    Valid 230427Z - 230530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe wind gusts may still
    increase a bit east-southeast of Devils Lake toward the Grand Forks
    vicinity during the next hour or so, before probably begin to
    diminish east of the Red River after 1 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...The supercell which passed to the north and east of
    Minot has maintained a notable structure the past few hours, on the
    southern periphery of slowly organizing cluster of convection now
    crossing the Devils Lake area. Cloud tops have still been cooling
    with this cluster, and recent radar trends are suggestive that
    strong to severe wind gust potential may still increase
    east-southeast of Devils Lake into areas near/south of Grand Forks
    through 06Z.=20

    Across and east of the Red River thereafter, it appears that the
    convective system may begin to process drier/more stable air,
    leading to weakening trends and diminishing severe weather
    potential.

    ..Kerr.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9fyqmHqQdrq_Y30XCjit6bi751CgyuXn-THaKwi-sCxDPif9MLR2L6b5467nsx0tWwrJwT-Zv= 4pb6qJLHJzgkuCFrjo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48449776 48179653 47699545 46989513 46879638 47109792
    47269892 47669904 47949857 48299794 48449776=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 23:11:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 142311
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142311=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-150045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1555
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0611 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern IA into northwest IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492...

    Valid 142311Z - 150045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and locally damaging gusts will
    continue this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms that developed across
    eastern IA this afternoon is now approaching northwest IL. These
    storms developed along a weak surface trough, with some upper
    support being provided by a midlevel shortwave trough now moving
    across parts of MN. With favorable downstream low-level moisture and instability, storms will likely persist for much of the evening as
    they spread farther into northwest IL.=20

    Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment, storms have been
    relatively disorganized thus far. While modest midlevel westerlies
    are supporting marginally favorable deep-layer shear, low-level flow
    is quite weak across the region, and storms have quickly become
    outflow dominant thus far. Some outflow consolidation remains
    possible this evening, which could result in an uptick in
    damaging-wind potential. Sporadic hail will also be possible with
    the strongest storms, though the threat may tend to remain rather
    isolated.

    ..Dean.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ZYXVn1Xmcd4OEtGob3OnbFe5O15xBqhX2yb1A-LtGP4ZftTb3i7GskpoWYWFlzUNwOa-y8u_= gYoHoQ1cPBsNC6FSMY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40779183 41099118 41629094 42069085 42379039 42428946
    42048921 41328924 40558952 40289007 40289072 40359123
    40639172 40779183=20


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