• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1552

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 22, 2022 23:19:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 222319
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222319=20
    NDZ000-230115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1552
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0619 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 222319Z - 230115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms initiating over southeastern Saskatchewan
    are likely to intensify further, and perhaps evolve into an
    organizing cluster of storms, posing increasing risk for severe
    weather into the 8-9 PM CDT time frame.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has initiated across southern Saskatchewan, just to the north of the international border vicinity
    to the north of Williston. This is occurring to the cool side of a
    frontal zone enhanced by differential surface heating, beneath the
    northern periphery of a plume of warmer and more strongly capping
    elevated mixed-layer air, where higher boundary-layer moisture
    content may be contributing to CAPE of 2000+ J/kg. This is also
    beneath a modest, but strongly sheared, west-northwesterly
    deep-layer ambient mean flow (around 30 kt), conducive to organizing convection, including supercells initially.

    A southeastward (rightward) propagation toward the international
    border vicinity may coincide with further intensification of ongoing
    activity. And weak low-level warm advection and convergence along
    the frontal zone extending east-southeastward across northern North
    Dakota may contribute to the maintenance of activity into the
    evening hours.

    Various model output suggests that forcing for ascent ahead of a
    weak frontal wave, aided by a strengthen low-level jet, may
    contribute to an upscale growing cluster of storms by 01-02Z. As
    this occurs, the primary potential severe hazards may transition
    from initially mostly large hail, with perhaps some risk for a
    tornado, to severe wind.

    ..Kerr.. 07/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5CJ8xE7_6P9cx7YRKX7xsWXbCsm8CPa_GIXMxlLjSTMce15kfenz8hmF9M3r2yaQUwWwQS0SV= PSCMIJmfKaKn8LGdz8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 49450366 49590221 49190047 48749946 48070041 48430181
    48800327 49190397 49450366=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 21:00:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 142100
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142100=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-142300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1552
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 142100Z - 142300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk will increase across the central and
    southern High Plains during the next few hours. A watch may
    eventually be needed for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface
    observations indicate a surface boundary/wind shift extending east-northeastward from northeastern NM into southwestern KS, where
    it intersects a southward-moving outflow boundary associated with an
    MCS farther east. In the near-term, an isolated thunderstorm is
    attempting to deepen along the wind shift in northeastern NM, where
    a long/straight hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates will
    support supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts. Farther
    east, boundary-layer cumulus is deepening across parts of
    southwestern KS into the OK Panhandle ahead of the
    southward-advancing outflow, and additional thunderstorm development
    is possible here during the next few hours. Similar to northeastern
    NM, a moderately unstable air mass and around 40-50 kt of effective
    shear will support organized storms including supercells capable of
    large hail and damaging winds.

    Convective evolution is somewhat unclear across this area, though
    current thinking is that a watch may eventually be needed for parts
    of the area.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9nj8N1hjzw6-fcgbiyhUjo38_2i_UoaVUXhFCtXdFd3wtU6oZJm7Bjnq_CKJABiVBNKeWoeWo= 1zPcPwe36Y3Z6XGpqk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35770211 35940291 36220366 36570386 36980378 37260337
    37760251 38070170 38070127 37950084 36959963 36639939
    36159939 35819970 35710044 35770211=20


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