• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1551

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 22, 2022 22:40:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 222240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222239=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1551
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0539 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast NE into northwest IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 222239Z - 230045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of isolated severe storms capable of large hail
    and severe gusts could increase during the next few hours. Trends
    are being monitored for a possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows a line
    of towering cumulus with hints of glaciation and a recent orphan
    anvil along a weak quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across
    parts of northeast NE into far northwest IA. Continued diurnal
    heating of rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints)
    along/south of the boundary could support isolated convective
    development during the next couple hours despite only weak
    large-scale ascent over the area.=20

    Steep midlevel lapse rates and large CAPE densities atop the
    moist/well-mixed boundary are contributing to moderate/strong
    surface-based instability, which combined with long/straight
    mid/upper-level hodographs would conditionally support organized
    convective structures including supercells. In addition, 35-45 kt of
    effective bulk shear oriented off the surface boundary would
    initially favor separated updrafts and the potential for isolated
    large hail and locally severe gusts. Given the conditionally
    favorable parameter space, isolated significant hail of 2+ in cannot
    be ruled out.=20

    Considering the weak large-scale ascent, it is currently unclear if
    storm coverage will warrant a watch issuance, though trends will be
    monitored closely.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5adBF-AaP8SFeJQE1ha8r3Fl6GUkWr2nOybKV6eY6h70IWn01CqzQcTP4TqDYv71uAV8rdd0e= FNIve9aHra5hGrMqPs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42079842 42459773 43039650 43349598 43339542 43229509
    42749493 42209504 41319705 41149793 41359835 41709854
    42079842=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 20:52:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 142052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142052=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-142215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1551
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of KS into western MO...northern OK...and northwestern AR

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490...491...

    Valid 142052Z - 142215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490, 491
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for numerous severe wind gusts continues, some
    of which may be 75+ mph. Downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    issuance into parts of northern Oklahoma and northwestern AR will
    likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple severe bowing segments are ongoing this
    afternoon from parts of south-central into eastern KS and far
    west-central MO. The eastern cluster now approaching the Kansas City
    metro has produced several measured and estimated severe wind gusts,
    mostly in the 60-75 mph range, along with some damage reports. In
    the short term, the airmass downstream of these clusters should
    remain favorable for continued updraft intensity and damaging wind
    potential. Eventually, the eastern cluster may encounter a somewhat
    less favorable thermodynamic environment across southwestern MO and
    vicinity, where convective overturning occurred earlier this
    morning. The southern cluster in south-central to southeastern KS
    should approach north-central into northeastern OK over the next
    couple of hours, with around 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE present across
    this area. The threat for severe/damaging winds will likely extend
    south of the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watches, and additional
    watch issuance into parts of northern OK and northwestern AR will
    likely be needed.

    ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-mIuEBYGCYNEzYdq3pxQpa6fy2Wmmj5OnBO3u5GmR0OZ8RBpmLZhGF9oInIPArZCH6iieSQp8= ri5Dj_0TaB4UQQxo78$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38019851 38289731 38789695 38899601 39019529 39359511
    39589458 39449329 39009301 38239306 36739345 36189412
    35889531 35899669 36199794 37509869 37789870 38019851=20


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