• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1548

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 22, 2022 16:50:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 221650
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221650=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-221845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1548
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern Ohio to southern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221650Z - 221845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the coming hours,
    and a few storms may intensify enough to pose a damaging wind risk.
    This potential is expected to remain isolated, and a watch is not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery continues to show building
    cumulus across eastern OH to southern NY ahead of a broad surface
    trough that is approaching from the west. Low-level water vapor
    imagery reveals a few deeper towers developing in the vicinity of a
    decaying MCV over southern NY/northern PA as well as across eastern
    OH. A recent ACARs sounding from Buffalo, NY revealed minimal
    inhibition, which supports trends noted in recent RAP mesoanalyses.
    These trends, combined with the noted signatures in low-level water
    vapor imagery, suggest that convective initiation appears likely in
    the next 1-2 hours. Additional convection is expected to develop
    through the early and mid afternoon hours.

    As thunderstorms mature, 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support a few
    organized cells and/or clusters. Poor mid-level lapse rates will
    hinder the potential for severe hail, but steepening boundary-layer
    lapse rates will support a damaging wind potential for the
    afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely remain isolated to
    widely scattered given the modest forcing for ascent, which appears
    at this time to mitigate the need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Goss.. 07/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4KP4n5xOl_pJXcKwn8nnhysKfPs1VdVWqUAiJXZxP0ICh2nSOU75DJ4KGMm2jhTSocQ-zHal5= 4nyOPyXLx6FqC6Lqxs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 40958196 41778017 42667768 42887654 42817534 42527463
    41797452 41147524 40387711 40117965 40008095 40028161
    40288204 40958196=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 19:39:14
    ACUS11 KWNS 141939
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141938=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-142145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1548
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Northeastern MO...eastern IA...western and northern
    IL...and southern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141938Z - 142145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential
    this afternoon. A watch may eventually be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery indicates a low-amplitude
    impulse embedded in a belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel
    flow overspreading parts of NE/SD/IA this afternoon. Along the
    eastern edge of related stratiform rain and cloud coverage ahead of
    this feature, temperatures are warming into the upper 80s amid lower
    70s dewpoints. Continued destabilization coupled with increasing
    large-scale ascent should promote scattered thunderstorm development
    during the next couple of hours. Around 30-40 kt of effective shear (characterized by a mostly long/straight hodograph) and steepening
    midlevel lapse rates will support organized clusters and supercell
    structures capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
    Environmental and convective trends are being monitored for a
    possible watch for parts of the area this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-R1Jj1szrRuKwD-COkoLRAnLzSIPaVVbuK9zot7NZI0aT5V0kHfbjfGR3YOB7dOOQ-uzcjzfq= mrIclFPs7--nbVnnSQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 41668758 41278814 40948860 40468908 39938947 39409006
    39249062 39229114 39309155 39379201 39619249 40079261
    40479254 40889242 41589220 42119198 42589179 42869153
    43049106 43139030 43148972 43138899 43058842 42948782
    42598759 42098751 41668758=20


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