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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1547

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 22, 2022 02:27:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 220227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220226=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-220400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1547
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0926 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

    Areas affected...Far southern Lower MI...northeast IN...northwest OH

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 220226Z - 220400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of strong to severe gusts will spread southward
    from southern Lower MI into northeast IN and northwest OH this
    evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS has developed over parts of
    southern Lower MI and is tracking south-southeastward at around 15
    kt. 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear oriented oblique to the
    leading-edge gust front is supporting modest organization, while a
    subtle 30 kt low-level jet (sampled by regional VWPs) is also aiding
    in convective maintenance with southward extent. While increasing
    nocturnal boundary-layer stability should eventually result in
    convective inflow rooted above the surface, upper 60s/lower 70s
    dewpoints immediately ahead of the ongoing convection could support
    a localized risk of strong to severe gusts across northeast IN and
    northwest OH given the already-established cold pool. The severe
    threat will generally be maximized with any north/south-oriented
    segments of convection. Considering the more east/west-orientation
    of the gust front and increasing boundary-layer stability, a watch
    is not expected.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xYW9iKl-rDlMsOuhR-6uwcxlhWpgz_w6bMsiEo3muxBR2Mbt0vP3YCWnHYCQb9CoMhLzEaTL= DbovToHQq6fZosTCMQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 41828633 41878547 42168475 41988430 41678405 41098426
    40828513 40878577 41418629 41828633=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 19:03:15
    ACUS11 KWNS 141903
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141902=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-142030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1547
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS into western MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490...491...

    Valid 141902Z - 142030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490, 491
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe wind threat is increasing, including the
    potential for 75-80+ mph gusts. Isolated large hail also remains a
    concern.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has begun to fill in between two previously
    separate thunderstorm clusters across central/eastern KS. The
    eastern cluster, currently approaching Topeka KS and vicinity, has
    shown signs of an intense rear-inflow jet. Multiple measured severe
    wind gusts around 60-65 mph have recently been noted with both
    clusters in KS. The airmass downstream into southern/eastern KS and
    western MO is strongly unstable, with MLCAPE generally 2500-3500
    J/kg. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will continue to foster
    convective organization. An intense MCS is still expected to
    consolidate over the next couple of hours as it moves quickly across southeastern KS into western MO. Given the rather favorable
    thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, significant
    severe/damaging winds upwards of 75-80+ mph appear increasingly
    likely. Isolated large hail will also remain possible with any
    embedded supercells.

    ..Gleason.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!48icmXfFxLNAiT6kLe3_0oEzZ5sLFFUr_8MgNVGjsmAMJ-9ma1riIjZpBg_CmAX8Lrfde-gUa= ze8tUASJCLXaR_Cu6o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38839927 38939861 39179800 39089709 39369620 39739623
    39659474 39159403 38679449 37919590 37479743 37609867
    38019937 38439965 38839927=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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