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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1545

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 22, 2022 01:23:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 220122
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220122=20
    NEZ000-220245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1545
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0822 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

    Areas affected...south central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483...

    Valid 220122Z - 220245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some further organization of an evolving cluster or line
    of thunderstorms appears possible near and west through north of the
    Kearney and Grand Island areas, accompanied by the potential for
    strong surface gusts into the 10-11 PM CDT time frame.

    DISCUSSION...Colder cloud tops and frequent lightning flash rates
    have largely been maintained the past couple of hours in strongest
    convection, which has been increasing in a narrow corridor between
    two apparent weak mid-level cyclonic vorticity centers within the
    10-20 kt west-northwesterly mean ambient flow. Objective analysis
    indicates considerable inhibition remains for moist boundary-layer
    parcels along the remnant zone of stronger differential surface
    heating. However, VWP data from Grand Island indicates that
    southerly low-level flow has begun to strengthen (to around 30 kts)
    above the decoupling boundary-layer.=20

    At least a period with some further organization of convection
    accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts still
    seems probable near and west through north of Kearney and Grand
    Island into the 03-04Z time frame, before activity begins to wane.

    ..Kerr.. 07/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9jCXZ-PHWBWdbXJas8lLW0OLGU_ufhD_i2RpRhKvpZcyS89VaDK3jZfPErl7ywHw_7wll60WW= Rn6Y3YXUh3RNb6KXs8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41619891 41149778 40579830 40499916 40390077 40890038
    41249991 41619891=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 18:02:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 141802
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141802=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-142030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1545
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0102 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141802Z - 142030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few instances of marginally severe hail and damaging
    gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the
    afternoon. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
    eastward across parts of southern PA into eastern WV and western VA
    this afternoon -- where a 1-inch hail report occurred earlier.
    During the next few hours, this activity will generally
    spread/develop eastward across the Mid-Atlantic region, where a
    plume of diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates is developing.
    Given around 30 kt of effective shear and the increasingly unstable pre-convective environment, marginally severe hail and locally
    damaging gusts are possible with any stronger multicell clusters or
    transient supercells that develop. The overall severe threat should
    remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_TLgr3jYPwTXsd_nlJZ3SplKlAtOAT2_UOuNLqXjN2jVdyykFPHCnEzUJ__nMtljjoXju5RAz= JEX30ThO-OZ62IezFM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 39487880 40157821 40647748 41087677 41287623 41367572
    41357506 41087456 40717429 40247434 39647462 39087498
    38637528 37837584 37707591 37407649 37387808 37667905
    38187935 38657928 39487880=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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