• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1541

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 21, 2022 22:33:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 212233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212232=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-220100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1541
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

    Areas affected...Far northeast IL...northern IN...southwest Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212232Z - 220100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms capable of localized wind
    damage are possible into this evening. A watch is not expected at
    this time.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convective development is underway across
    parts of northeast IL and southern Lake Michigan ahead of a weak
    surface front draped across the area. While minimal large-scale
    ascent and weak surface convergence has limited convective
    maintenance over land thus far, a cluster of storms with embedded
    supercell structure is evolving over the southern portion of Lake
    Michigan. This activity is being aided by deep/enhanced
    west-southwesterly flow characterized by 25-30 kt of 0-6 km bulk
    shear per regional VWP data. Over the next few hours, convection
    should continue developing/spreading east-southeastward toward
    southwest Lower MI and northern IN. Despite veered surface flow over
    the area, the latest MDW ACARS sounding shows a moist/well-mixed
    boundary layer and long/generally straight hodograph -- supportive
    of loosely organized clusters and transient supercell structures
    capable of localized wind damage. Given the weak large-scale ascent
    and expected onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization, a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8OzVFpKJGBUEen4BTJ3PJWqwDR4DOin6_bIAH3xoUbVYSEqndkk40gFabnxf6SDtTR3XRGDQd= 0wxtOl3OE-cw001Guo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 42438787 42458760 42288730 42148687 42268650 43118629
    43158591 42488563 41888564 41438601 41238684 41368738
    41968799 42438787=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 15:19:11
    ACUS11 KWNS 141519
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141518=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-141645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1541
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1018 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern NE and northern KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...

    Valid 141518Z - 141645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing concern
    as thunderstorms move southeastward this morning. Some risk for
    large hail will also exist.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms with embedded
    supercell structures has produced several reports of large hail up
    to 1.75 inches in diameter across southwestern/central NE over the
    past couple of hours. This convection is about to reach greater
    low-level moisture and MLCAPE along/south of a weak surface boundary
    draped near the NE/KS border. Current expectations are for these
    thunderstorms to gradually grow upscale into an MCS over the next
    couple of hours as they spread southeastward along an instability
    gradient. Scattered severe/damaging winds should become the primary
    severe threat across south-central NE and north-central KS this
    morning as this mode transition occurs. But, recent radar imagery
    still shows a robust supercell on the southwest flank of the
    cluster, which will likely remain capable of producing large hail in
    the short term.

    ..Gleason.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8p63mbPshYuxq0vbeCG_H97HQRWTfsbWBydWBwOO5cZKW8tuoQFvYWd1BtyGaJgn_WLKunLId= mZRoo4ZK-pRxi9kNAo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40600098 40880030 41119959 40719834 40259796 39309829
    39189971 39380044 40280098 40600098=20


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