ACUS11 KWNS 212020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212020=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-212145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...southern Arkansas...northeastern
Louisiana...central and northern parts of Mississippi and
Alabama...and southern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 212020Z - 212145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase in coverage from southern
Arkansas to portions of the Tennessee Valley area, accompanied by
severe risk which may necessitate WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows a cluster of
rapidly developing, vigorous storms over west-central Arkansas, and
towering cumulus extending eastward/east-northeastward along the
front across southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northwestern
Alabama, and into Middle Tennessee. The very moist boundary layer
south of the front has -- due to strong insolation/diurnal heating
-- become strongly unstable, with mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to
5000 J/kg range.=20=20

While deep-layer flow remains fairly weak area-wide, southerlies at
low levels topped by northerlies above roughly 3 to 4 km suggests
potential for southward propagation of storms as they grow upscale.=20
This -- combined with the extremely warm/moist/unstable environment
-- would suggest potential for more widespread wind-damage risk,
which warrants WW consideration over the next hour or two.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_g4Umd7kElciV_mW4uaIYuP6xWelOi-OvahVLl9-i9U2qTFf_9MF5swjtJk2RtdROQawbEDBS= sgZseYOHdO2pNxXWRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34589364 34229151 34519007 35408642 35328573 33068559
32748638 32559050 32949218 33849348 34589364=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 140238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140237=20
OKZ000-140400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 140237Z - 140400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe-thunderstorm threat may evolve through late
evening, and watch issuance is possible depending on short-term
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection has been ongoing across
western OK for much of the evening, but deeper convection has
recently developed near a weak surface boundary across parts of
Caddo/Canadian Counties, with cell motion and the radar presentation
suggesting these storms are closer to surface based. With extreme
low-level moisture and instability in place (as noted in the 00Z OUN
sounding) and sufficient deep-layer shear, the environment is
favorable for supercells, and a conditional threat for all severe
hazards may evolve if any of the ongoing cells can mature and be
sustained this evening.=20

With generally limited large-scale ascent and a relatively
constrained spatial and temporal window for surface-based
development this evening, the need for watch issuance is uncertain,
but will be considered if storms continue to increase in coverage
and intensity.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5LHn2szpHMLirYRVnwsvihhJYt3vZTVVShEUry9ZZ8YMsRfohbucAXr_5LTz4jA4Tqjmhws-= 37Iu1sGOTjNimCVecE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35779839 36109760 35989654 35619608 35229608 34939631
34889666 34909752 34909817 35239860 35779839=20


=3D =3D =3D
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