ACUS11 KWNS 211500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211459=20 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-211600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 211459Z - 211600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development will increase through late
morning/early afternoon, along with attendant risk for damaging
winds. WW will be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front crossing the
central Appalachians, with a lead pressure trough extending
southward roughly along the Champlain/Hudson Valleys. A steady
increase in the CU field is noted, as temperatures warm into the low
80s resulting in widespread 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

A gradual increase in storm development is expected over the next
couple of hours, as additional heating/destabilization occurs.=20
Updrafts will be aided by favorable speed shear, amidst moderately strong/roughly unidirectional flow with height on the southeastern
side of the southwestern Quebec upper low. As such, storms will
become increasingly capable of producing damaging wind gusts --
initially in a more localized manner but become more widespread with
time as storm coverage increases and convection grows upscale
locally into small clusters/lines. Initial WW issuance is expected
within the next hour, extending from the eastern New York into New
England.

..Goss.. 07/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9aN12AGO8rphgdQohhyLEj_X6_RF9c1JSfyrCeHP6S1Cq7N1uMmFQUqsh9mQuggg_1aUrIoqo= IWntjmbLd0TsGE7N8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 46866993 46136902 44286949 42497098 40947251 40617396
42097458 42907580 43287569 44077448 45117364 45177180
45627081 46866993=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 132323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132323=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Extreme northeast NM into the TX/OK Panhandles...TX
South Plains...and southwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...

Valid 132323Z - 140100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
continues.

SUMMARY...A supercell capable of very large hail and possibly a
tornado may move into parts of northeast NM and adjacent parts of
the TX/OK Panhandles. Farther south/southeast, isolated severe wind
and hail remain possible into parts of the TX South Plains and
southwest OK.

DISCUSSION...At 2315 UTC, an intense supercell is moving slowly
southward across Baca County, CO, and this cell may continue into
parts of extreme northeast NM and adjacent portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles into this evening. The environment across northern
portions of WW 485 remains quite favorable for supercells, with
MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt. Very
large hail and localized severe gusts will be the primary threats if
this supercell persists southward, though a tornado cannot be ruled
out given the magnitude of instability and low-level moisture across
the region.=20

Farther south, less intense convection is ongoing near Amarillo,
where numerous outflows have stabilized the environment somewhat.
Deep-layer flow/shear is weaker across the southern part of WW 485,
but a few stronger cells capable of localized severe gusts and/or
hail will remain possible into early evening.=20

To the southeast of WW 485, another isolated cell developed earlier
across western north TX, which has moved into southwest OK. This
cell has produced a notable outflow, which could result in strong to
severe gusts well removed from the storm. An additional strong storm
or two may develop within a very hot and unstable environment on the
periphery of this outflow, which in turn could also pose a threat of
isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail. With the threat in this
area expected to remain isolated, additional watch issuance is
unlikely in the short term.

..Dean.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5icIz01TWl-wfpX6gGSCZP8tHYiebabVacregJi-fLPj8wWGB-riCwmuu-lR7ae1Kdnbh3TAV= yUhUc5NXdAKblTMmno$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36980380 36870211 36090153 34960083 34610000 34449909
34619847 34339788 33689818 33479884 33770081 34150222
34480294 35590335 36980380=20


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