• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1530

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 21, 2022 00:32:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 210032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210031=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-210130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1530
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0731 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

    Areas affected...far eastern OH and western PA.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 210031Z - 210130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may linger east of WW478 this
    evening. A small downstream watch is being considered, though it
    remains unclear if it is necessary.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing cluster of severe storms across WW478 is
    projected to reach the eastern edge of the watch by 0130-02z. While
    the overall environment is forecast to become more stable with time,
    some potential for damaging wind gusts may linger east of the watch
    into far eastern OH and western PA later this evening. Downstream
    buoyancy and vertical shear remain sufficient to support a damaging
    wind risk with organized storms, and some hi-res guidance does
    support continued convection into western PA. While uncertainty is
    high, the potential for strong to severe storms to linger into the
    late evening/overnight suggests a small downstream, weather watch
    may be needed.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8zsvZIpxm8susbKy3U23nMF86xYSiRaZMhhus6wsuPVoVfwoVtLkv31aJLmSrl1ukTTentGWE= s2osnIiApOMmaSW-oY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41518037 41607952 41477949 41087956 40538003 40088050
    40078123 40258164 40378168 41518037=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 22:22:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 132222
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132222=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-132345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1530
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0522 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast CO into extreme southwest KS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 487...

    Valid 132222Z - 132345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 487 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells capable of very large hail and a couple of
    tornadoes will likely continue into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Intense supercells are ongoing late this afternoon
    across southeast CO to near the CO/KS border. These supercells are
    being supported by anomalous low-level moisture (with dewpoints near
    70 F), MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg, and effective shear of 50+ kt, and
    maintenance of these cells is generally expected as they move
    southward into early evening. Additional development in the wake of
    the initial cells will also be possible, as low-level moisture
    advection continues into the higher terrain.=20

    Generally long and straight hodographs will continue to support the
    potential for very large hail. Low-level shear is not particularly
    strong, but may be sufficient to support the potential for a couple
    tornadoes, given the magnitude of low-level moisture and instability
    across the region. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible.

    ..Dean.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ksyywSGxI7OyQuulXTCSgCfp1as7Jrmlz9uSE2xILcgyc27q_K12w4z-sN9Vgmg67Ymva6uG= fWygymfis89mLLMvps$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 38490400 38550217 38320173 37890175 37510171 37250180
    37020208 36970283 37090393 37730420 38490400=20


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