• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1528

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 23:47:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 202347
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202347=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-210145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1528
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0647 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

    Areas affected...southeastern North Dakota...northeastern South Dakota...adjacent west central Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202347Z - 210145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...It still appears unlikely that a severe weather watch will
    be needed, but further intensification of at least a couple of
    ongoing storms with perhaps some increase in number, may occur
    across the region through 8-10 PM. As activity spreads toward the
    Watertown, SD and Alexandria, MN areas, they may pose a risk for
    severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Intensification of convection has probably been slowed
    by mid-level subsidence, and generally confined to a couple of cells
    within a narrow corridor to the northwest of Gwinner, ND the past
    couple of hours. This may coincide with a zone of differential
    lower/mid tropospheric thermal advection, in the wake of one
    vigorous short wave trough turning eastward across the upper Great
    Lakes region and downstream of another digging across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This also appears near the exit region of
    75-80+ kt jet streak around 300 mb, along which deep-layer shear is
    strong and potentially supportive of supercells.

    While it is possible that warm layers aloft continue to inhibit deep convection, various model output has been suggestive that ongoing
    storms may undergo a period of substantive intensification and
    perhaps some increase in coverage by 00-02Z. If this occurs, it
    will probably do so in an environment characterized by steep
    low-level lapse rates and mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg,
    which may remain conducive to severe hail and wind into late
    evening.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_OjnPjhrk5MIm0pFJiAWuNbSzhjNqy0UWUwfLUE_heeexpptyoM_4-hx3AlwySN8htreENTgl= j-Ni1gZNKMdanHpCIQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46679866 46539697 45879577 45109633 45299796 46149908
    46679866=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 21:49:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 132148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132148=20
    MNZ000-132315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1528
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0448 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western/central MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 132148Z - 132315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and damaging wind will spread
    southeastward into this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has
    recently developed across eastern SD, with several reports of severe
    hail in the last hour. Moderate buoyancy and unidirectional wind
    profiles with around 30-40 kt of effective shear are supporting
    occasional supercell structures, and some hail threat may continue
    as storms approach southwest MN, where a similar environment is in
    place. Farther north, strong to potentially severe storms are moving
    from eastern ND into western MN, and may pose a localized hail
    threat in the short term.=20

    With time, some clustering and modest upscale growth of convection
    is possible. While relatively dry conditions are noted across parts
    of central MN, steep low/midlevel lapse rates could support some
    damaging wind threat with any upscale growing cluster by early
    evening. Watch issuance is possible for some portion of
    western/central MN, depending on short-term observational trends.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ktoVwL-EeIwcSg91yQcEUTebYcaYcebKSRKY1ALrHVpq_yL-9qC3mzNtinZ-hFWZZL5XiANl= k-MVri_2DbEoEBx8Jo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 48079606 47959591 47159453 45899432 43629421 43599576
    43659640 44869643 45729641 46879654 47759658 48079606=20


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