• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1524

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 20:31:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 202031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202030=20
    OHZ000-202200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1524
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

    Areas affected...northwestern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

    Valid 202030Z - 202200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk has diminished in the short term, but may
    increase/expand southwestward across western Ohio over the next
    couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the stronger storms which
    earlier crossed WW 477 now moving into western Ontario and western
    Lake Erie, as the cold front continues moving eastward across
    southeastern Michigan and northwestern Ohio.

    While no severe storms are ongoing on the U.S. side of the border at
    this time, latest HRRR runs continue to indicate potential for
    southwestward development of storms along the front, across western
    Ohio, over the next couple of hours -- including across the
    remaining Ohio portions of WW 477.

    ..Goss.. 07/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-LqniKTfQqSgQ-otjP1j779cZUINazlFWOVaIc-vkywX4eogZPpyFW38uokQn2O_nhrVxGiry= jdbgt_fp2Cw13e6504$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...

    LAT...LON 40428447 41318356 41968294 41398237 40208284 40428447=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 19:23:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 131923
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131923=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1524
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0223 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern WY...southwestern SD...western NE...and far northeastern CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 131923Z - 132130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk will likely increase during the next
    couple of hours, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. A
    watch issuance is likely for parts of the area this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest day cloud phase satellite imagery indicates
    increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus along the higher
    terrain in eastern WY into northern CO, and additional deepening
    over the Black Hills in western SD. Continued diurnal heating and
    related orographic ascent should support isolated to widely
    scattered thunderstorm development during the next couple of hours.
    As storms intercept increasing boundary-layer moisture (lower/middle
    60s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates in the lee of the
    higher terrain in WY/CO, updrafts should intensify and increase in
    coverage amid east-southeasterly upslope flow. Weaker instability
    farther north into the Black Hills casts uncertainty on updraft
    intensity, though a couple strong storms cannot be ruled out. 40-50
    kt of effective shear and generally weak large-scale ascent should
    favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially, with a risk of
    very large hail and severe gusts. With time, cell-mergers could
    yield a couple organized east-southeastward-moving clusters with a
    continued hail risk and increasing damaging-wind potential. A watch
    will likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6POVooN9uB_e-ja7mNpDBWKVzpRMQrWguCl43cLIfmuZZOJ5K1soFbE-H1sxfaNDVzXN9YrcC= 5DPSn8Hy0hud5uERaQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40610217 40380299 40100346 39830396 39850450 40070471
    40400476 41990487 43050490 43930483 44240450 44420396
    44450343 44290261 43990208 43440160 42520154 41410157
    40610217=20


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