• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1523

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 18:51:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 201851
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201850=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-202015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1523
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

    Areas affected...southeast CO into northeast NM

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201850Z - 202015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with
    thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun to develop along the higher
    terrain in the vicinity of Raton Mesa northward along I-25 across
    southeast CO. Modest instability (500 J/kg or less) and weak
    effective shear (20-25 kt) will limit overall storm organization and
    longevity of more intense updrafts. However, steep low-level lapse
    rates and DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg, along with a rather
    dry sub-cloud layer will promote strong downdrafts. Sporadic
    downbursts producing strong outflows with isolated severe gusts will
    be possible as convection develops east/southeast across the High
    Plains into early evening. A lack of better organized convection and
    the isolated nature of the threat will preclude a severe
    thunderstorm watch at this time.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6yrX9lQf9gEVVBI85CeQkYzj_qU0lrePifiiFmgcf-aWbBYBAS4VCR9R_9A4pqWZM8cBOQ451= c7eSgfOmy348iarmcE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 39070481 39180435 39120377 38960316 37940253 37510248
    36580283 36080310 35280360 34980471 34990534 35220565
    35610572 36110534 36380517 37860515 38810497 39070481=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 19:21:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 131921
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131920=20
    VTZ000-NYZ000-132115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1523
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of NY and VT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481...

    Valid 131920Z - 132115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for scattered to numerous damaging winds will
    continue to increase this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has generally consolidated along the cold
    front across western/central NY this afternoon. A moderately to
    strongly unstable airmass is present along/ahead of these
    thunderstorms, with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg estimated by latest
    mesoanalysis. A couple of discrete thunderstorms with occasional
    supercell characteristics have developed ahead of the line across
    northern NY. Isolated severe hail may occur with this activity.
    Steepened low-level lapse rates (0-3 km layer around 7-8 C/km) will
    aid in efficient mixing of stronger downdraft winds to the surface.
    And given the mainly linear nature of the convection ongoing
    along/near the front, scattered to numerous damaging winds are
    expected to be the primary severe threat through the rest of the
    afternoon. A 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet remains focused across
    NY/VT into southern Quebec. Associated low-level shear appears
    sufficient to support some updraft rotation and tornado threat with
    both the discrete thunderstorms ahead of the line and within the
    line itself.

    ..Gleason.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_U9fpHLKwzumVpQKSZ9VkT5SszbemhdnAohEhpXKBoppnGBHNLDA-1d9x6TWv539IakCtAVFg= SDMaYF4UV-4GeCVQr4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42087694 43437567 44587533 44987472 45017357 44787263
    43267317 42217510 42087694=20


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