ACUS11 KWNS 201838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201838=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Lower Michigan and into northwestern
Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

Valid 201838Z - 202015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across valid portions of WW 477 --
particularly from the Thumb area of Lower Michigan southward to
northwestern Ohio.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows thunderstorms ongoing from
northern portions of Lower Michigan southward to the
Michigan/northwestern Ohio border. The strongest storms are ongoing
from the Thumb area southward to near Pontiac, moving
east-northeastward at around 35 kt. These storms are ongoing just
ahead of the advancing cold front, in an area of maximized
mixed-layer CAPE (1500 to 2500 J/kg), and 0-6km shear roughly 40 kt
per the latest KDTX VWP, and recent 18Z RAOB. Storms will move into
Lake Huron over the next hour or so, but will remain capable of
producing locally strong/damaging gusts in the mean time. In
addition, southward expansion of the broken band of storms may occur
across parts of northwestern Ohio in the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Goss.. 07/20/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_mKgaXAGbfs140xjeJ9VrU83KwqLNbdv1RYGgMTFhQRszFWC85CPFSpNjbs9SorWeLQCzHxse= KQmvwjo0vMhQ9FYmIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 43988332 44068291 43208243 41288300 41048403 41118461
42298376 43988332=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 131858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131858=20
IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-132100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central into southeastern SD and far
northeastern NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131858Z - 132100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-storm
potential this afternoon. It is unclear if a watch will be needed,
though convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development is underway along a
weak confluence zone/wind shift extending east-southeastward across
South Dakota this afternoon. This activity is developing along the
eastern edge of an EML plume and related steep midlevel lapse rates
atop an increasingly unstable boundary layer. Given an uncapped and
moderately unstable pre-convective environment, storms may increase
in intensity during the next couple of hours. And, 40-50 kt of
effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph)
should support a mix of organized clusters and splitting supercells
capable of producing large hail and severe gusts. While coverage of
severe storms is uncertain, convective trends are being monitored
for a possible watch this afternoon.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4XFH6cZHi-EFHLT9lG58TbIxthMNesUToD81EWM8x9AzbSb6zRvX4TFVkTANqAodbqlvqSQVE= cf_M4nVWl6G7_tkJpM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43320014 43670068 44060092 44500101 44860081 44940045
44919991 44789915 44569832 44389773 44059700 43569662
43029651 42649679 42649737 42709850 43089966 43320014=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)