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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1520

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 00:12:06
    ACUS11 KWNS 200012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200011=20
    NMZ000-AZZ000-200215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1520
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0711 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

    Areas affected...southern Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 200011Z - 200215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with a
    high-based cluster of storms moving westward. Organization is
    expected to be minimal and a weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last 60 min,several clusters of high-based
    thunderstorms have shown modest organization as surface cold pools
    have merged and propagated west/southwestward this evening. Driven
    by strong heating, seasonably high monsoon moisture, and enhanced
    easterly flow beneath the large Four Corners ridge, continued
    westward propagation is expected through this evening. Likely rooted
    near 3 km from area averaged model soundings, dry low-level inverted
    V structures beneath these storms will continue to support strong downdrafts/cold pools capable of isolated damaging wind gusts.
    Modest vertical shear (generally less than 25kt) suggests
    organization potential is limited to cold pool forcing and along the
    southern border where flow is strongest. As such, the risk for
    damaging wind gusts should remain relatively isolated and a weather
    watch is not expected.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!713Ot43J4bdzk7btAjkECll97bgCemWwkOD0z5XPPB2gdN4dJBP-cOlh-wTGetI60q8AS99Ht= R7pfIoG53Mh3czk0uU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 31461148 32201131 32771127 33241145 33821165 34311132
    34511088 34361032 33800973 33170938 32640914 32160899
    31650892 31260902 31231092 31271120 31461148=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 18:29:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 131828
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131828=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-132030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1520
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of southern MN and northern IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131828Z - 132030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe-storm risk will continue increasing this afternoon.
    A watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures are quickly climbing into the lower/middle
    80s amid upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints across parts of southern
    MN and northern IA -- where a weak low-level confluence zone is
    evident. As ascent accompanying a subtle midlevel impulse (evident
    in water vapor imagery) crosses the area, an increase in storm
    coverage is possible. A unidirectional wind profile characterized by
    30-40 kt of effective shear over the area, coupled with continued
    diurnal destabilization, should support a few organized clusters and
    perhaps supercell structures capable of large hail and locally
    damaging winds. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch
    issuance.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FShfX2-KDbBEwsGWAtqyGcxFmvyC5lHnM2wUkUU-oqk1HBUdqkJjPi0S2VBTGUdpR9oShONT= MWJltKTiOEzISJy8BE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 42789214 42699253 42679291 42679336 42729398 42819476
    43119569 43539612 43889635 44359642 44729624 44859590
    44679535 44369471 44159351 44129261 44029206 43819178
    43449171 43049180 42789214=20


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