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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1519

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 19, 2022 18:58:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 191858
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191858=20
    MNZ000-WIZ000-192100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1519
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

    Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 191858Z - 192100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage through the
    late afternoon hours. Storms will mainly pose a hail/wind risk
    across northern Minnesota and perhaps as far south as far northwest
    Wisconsin. A watch will likely be needed to address this potential.

    DISCUSSION...The onset of deep convective initiation is noted in
    GOES imagery across northwest MN over the past 20 minutes. This
    activity continues to mature quickly due to strong ascent along a
    surface cold front in the vicinity of a surface low over the
    international border. Although extensive mid-level stratus is noted
    along and ahead of the front, latest RAP analyses suggest MLCIN
    continues to diminish with MLCAPE increasing to near 1500 J/kg over
    northern MN - likely due to strong synoptic ascent ahead of the
    compact upper wave.=20

    Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern MN
    over the coming hours as the front continues to advance
    east/northeast and inhibition decays further via broad adiabatic
    ascent/cooling and modest diurnal heating. 30-40 knot effective
    shear vectors are largely orthogonal to the front across northern
    MN, which will favor a mix of discrete and semi-discrete cells,
    including the potential for a few supercells. Large hail and severe
    winds are expected to be the primary hazards. This threat will
    likely be maximized across northern MN over the coming hours, but
    additional storm development is possible further south along the
    front (possibly as far south as far northwest WI). However,
    confidence in convection further south along the front is lower, at
    least for the next couple of hours, due to stronger capping.
    Regardless, a watch will likely be needed to address the severe
    threat.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7fuWlT3anmxJ_PQ1EMeXWQBOsEY-9NSltxpkX9vf7Pr3XnmYV3lCrFe6NvNdApDbAJ5DNVCUR= H0vXa3z4muF6tv-Jxc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46059461 47509501 48379611 49149619 49449511 48849272
    48269063 47569040 46849054 46329068 46029110 45729178
    45539265 45509335 45729413 46059461=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 18:10:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 131809
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131809=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-132015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1519
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0109 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO and far western KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 131809Z - 132015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in severe-storm potential is expected
    during the next couple of hours across parts of eastern CO, and
    eventually into far western KS. A watch will be needed for parts of
    the area shortly.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface
    observations indicate gradual boundary-layer destabilization across
    parts of eastern CO -- where moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow
    (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) are in place beneath an EML
    plume/steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, isolated convective
    initiation is underway along the edge of remnant outflow from
    earlier thunderstorms in eastern CO. While lingering capping at the
    base of the EML and antecedent boundary-layer static stability could
    limit the coverage of storm development in the short-term, continued
    heating and increasing instability should allow for a gradual
    increase in development during the next couple of hours.=20

    Around 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly
    straight hodograph) and the aforementioned destabilization will
    favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells capable of producing very
    large hail and damaging winds. While less certain, a tornado or two
    cannot be ruled out given the rich/sheltered boundary-layer moisture
    and discrete/semi-discrete supercell mode. A watch will likely be
    needed for parts of the area shortly.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6TwTEpkUDf2-s-6VNx1KjaFeys3c72G5oLIUeFjroSziRESCNncUWc7BmoF3uZGhfKm7FEulG= RL6kzmp524Vt2OWSnw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39350436 39860426 40130397 40290365 40330324 40310273
    40270217 40110191 39810165 38910170 37970190 37420200
    37110229 37090354 37210396 37550417 38000432 38840437
    39350436=20


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