ACUS11 KWNS 191814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191814=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-192015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Alabama...northern
portions of the Florida Panhandle...and parts of central and
southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191814Z - 192015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue
developing across parts of the Southeast, with locally gusty winds
-- capable of producing tree/branch damage -- possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible satellite loops show storms
increasing in coverage across portions of Alabama and Georgia, and
vicinity, to the south and southeast of a short-wave trough shifting southeastward across the southern Appalachians. The storms are
evolving within a very moist (mid 70s dewpoints) airmass, where
insolation has helped to push mixed-layer CAPE values into the 2000
to 3000 J/kg range.

As storms continue to evolve, some organization is being observed --
aided by moderate/unidirectional westerly flow indicated across the
region on the southern periphery of the upper trough. As outflow
boundaries merge favoring new/possibly vigorous updraft growth
locally, gusty winds -- capable of minor damage -- may occur
locally. However, given expectations that such stronger gusts will
remain sparse/sporadic, and largely below official severe levels, WW
issuance is not likely to be required.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/19/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6K-8wQeM3b349RglGfl3k7dM2L9goYQBpfPto2mRsYUTvlKJPQHFaGcQ37hOPXzQSAz5GTK0K= HteCxeCvvMlPC11ncc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 33428480 32898369 32538128 31038189 30448442 30808709
31098749 31858703 32538663 33208663 33718604 33428480=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 131726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131726=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-131830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern IN...southern OH...northern/eastern KY...and WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 131726Z - 131830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for large hail and damaging winds should exist
with thunderstorms this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is draped along/near the Ohio
River into southern/eastern OH at 1715Z. A very moist low-level
airmass, characterized by surface dewpoints generally in the low
70s, is present along/south of this boundary. Although large-scale
ascent remains fairly nebulous, sufficient low-level convergence
along the front coupled with the presence of a strong upper jet over
the OH Valley appears to be supporting the development of convection
across parts of WV early this afternoon. Additional development
should occur farther west along/near the Ohio River into northern
KY/southern OH. Latest mesoanalysis suggests that upwards of
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is already available to support robust
updrafts, with even stronger instability forecast to develop over
the next few hours with continued daytime heating.

Various VWPs across this region show weak westerly winds gradually strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Corresponding speed
shear is contributing to around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear,
locally stronger farther west along the Ohio River. Current
expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually continue increasing
in both coverage and intensity this afternoon as additional diurnal
heating occurs. A mix of multicells and supercells posing a threat
for both large hail and damaging winds should occur. Given the
increasing hail/wind threat, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will
likely be needed.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!562WGiuyqeYeDdyrHggLbupeu2H6wj0KkYqNv4dVHOMrUUGmpqhiI0GEBAdhW5AKO2IOsUCKV= uz_wrVbBrDKcfv7CGg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 38738542 39078538 39338368 39598251 39718097 39557969
38857970 38317985 37918013 37518069 37548196 38018399
38408488 38738542=20


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