ACUS11 KWNS 182239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182238=20 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-190015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Areas affected...portions of the Mid atlantic and southern New
England
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...
Valid 182238Z - 190015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of strong to severe storms from DelMarVA
to southeastern NY State should remain capable of isolated damaging
gusts and perhaps a brief weak tornado through this evening.
Additional storm development along the synoptic cold front is also
possible though uncertain.
DISCUSSION...As of 2220 UTC, regional radar showed several clusters
of strong to severe storms ongoing from DelMarVA into southern New
England. Recent observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a warm and
moist environment with 1000-1500 J/kg of MCLAPE. The favorable
buoyancy should continue to support strong updrafts with the ongoing
storms. Area VAD/VWPs also show 40-50 kt of bulk shear which will
continue to favor storm organization into small bowing clusters and
miniature supercells. Given the favorable buoyancy and organized
storm modes, a few damaging wind gusts will remain possible this
evening. A brief weak tornado will also remain possible with any
sustained mini supercells, particularly across southern NY Sate/New
England. Here, locally backed flow near the warm front may enhance
low-level shear enough to sustain transient low-level mesocyclones
and a brief tornado risk.
Farther west along the synoptic cold front, agitated cumulus was
observed across portions of eastern PA and upstate NY. Some hi-res
guidance suggests isolated storm development is possible through
this evening. Veered low-level flow near the front will likely
support more of a linear mode with a damaging wind threat. It
remains unclear if residual buoyancy will be strong enough to
support any severe weather risk this evening. However, if additional
storms form, an isolated damaging wind risk may develop.
..Lyons.. 07/18/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_B3UqbEcH1eSViSFJ-4o-iCiF4akHbJXCV-Rr0yZs_tNBMzuGaLJMiD0M4x2iDvxfEfZld_Ed= xWeaWdF4tb6cRAUY_k$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39387642 39927665 40267648 40677600 41307533 41727440
42467382 42777362 42957322 42927297 42777276 42427262
41557263 41157283 40707333 40527391 39367494 39287495
39067522 38757552 38787595 39387642=20
=3D =3D =3D
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