• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1513

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 18, 2022 22:39:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 182239
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182238=20 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-190015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1513
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0538 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

    Areas affected...portions of the Mid atlantic and southern New
    England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

    Valid 182238Z - 190015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of strong to severe storms from DelMarVA
    to southeastern NY State should remain capable of isolated damaging
    gusts and perhaps a brief weak tornado through this evening.
    Additional storm development along the synoptic cold front is also
    possible though uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2220 UTC, regional radar showed several clusters
    of strong to severe storms ongoing from DelMarVA into southern New
    England. Recent observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a warm and
    moist environment with 1000-1500 J/kg of MCLAPE. The favorable
    buoyancy should continue to support strong updrafts with the ongoing
    storms. Area VAD/VWPs also show 40-50 kt of bulk shear which will
    continue to favor storm organization into small bowing clusters and
    miniature supercells. Given the favorable buoyancy and organized
    storm modes, a few damaging wind gusts will remain possible this
    evening. A brief weak tornado will also remain possible with any
    sustained mini supercells, particularly across southern NY Sate/New
    England. Here, locally backed flow near the warm front may enhance
    low-level shear enough to sustain transient low-level mesocyclones
    and a brief tornado risk.

    Farther west along the synoptic cold front, agitated cumulus was
    observed across portions of eastern PA and upstate NY. Some hi-res
    guidance suggests isolated storm development is possible through
    this evening. Veered low-level flow near the front will likely
    support more of a linear mode with a damaging wind threat. It
    remains unclear if residual buoyancy will be strong enough to
    support any severe weather risk this evening. However, if additional
    storms form, an isolated damaging wind risk may develop.

    ..Lyons.. 07/18/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_B3UqbEcH1eSViSFJ-4o-iCiF4akHbJXCV-Rr0yZs_tNBMzuGaLJMiD0M4x2iDvxfEfZld_Ed= xWeaWdF4tb6cRAUY_k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39387642 39927665 40267648 40677600 41307533 41727440
    42467382 42777362 42957322 42927297 42777276 42427262
    41557263 41157283 40707333 40527391 39367494 39287495
    39067522 38757552 38787595 39387642=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 13, 2023 04:02:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 130402
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130402=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1513
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southwest
    MO...North-central/northeast OK...Extreme northwest AR

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

    Valid 130402Z - 130600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail/wind continues across WW 479,
    and may eventually spread south of the watch overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
    late this evening from southeast KS into southwest/central MO.
    Earlier storms east of Kansas City produced measured wind gusts of
    60-70 mph and some hail, but that area of storms subsequently
    weakened as it moved eastward into parts of central MO in the
    immediate wake of an earlier storm cluster.=20

    Farther west, a potentially severe cell is ongoing across Bourbon
    County, KS, with additional development noted as far southwest as
    extreme north-central OK. With a modest low-level jet expected to
    remain focused across southeast KS/southwest MO, intense storms
    capable of hail and severe gusts will remain possible across this
    area into the overnight hours, in the presence of strong buoyancy
    and favorable deep-layer shear. Some organized upscale growth
    remains possible, which could eventually result in a severe threat
    spreading into parts of northeast OK and northwest AR. MLCINH is
    notably stronger farther southwest into northern OK, but short-term
    forecast soundings suggest weaker CINH for storms based around 800
    mb in this area, and a few stronger elevated cells/clusters could
    evolve overnight.=20

    Given the potential for strong to potentially severe storms to
    develop and/or move into northern OK and northwest AR, watch
    issuance downstream of WW 479 is possible later tonight.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6faNPA9IrQeNihUhzl5IydWBAzQojwEg6xpcxVu3AdCv-ouTJzba-rsUjv9_6s2jfgs_SbYax= TWPIexA4zHJKgxShI0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
    DDC...

    LAT...LON 37019866 38049683 38949471 38679242 38179152 37659147
    37109178 36779237 36079437 36039805 36259871 36649875
    36829875 37019866=20


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