ACUS11 KWNS 182038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182038=20
MTZ000-182245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...Northern to northeastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 474...

Valid 182038Z - 182245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 474
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds and large hail will continue
across WW 474 for the next several hours as storms continue to
intensify.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery across MT continues to show
gradual intensification of ongoing convection with a steady decrease
in cloud top temperatures. Lightning counts have also trended up,
and additional convective cells continue to develop across central
MT as the migratory upper wave shifts east out of northern ID. A
special 18 UTC sounding from GGW sampled the downstream environment,
and after adjusting for recent surface observations, hints that
MLCAPE values remain near 500 J/kg with some lingering inhibition.
This inhibition, combined with somewhat narrow CAPE profiles, is
likely responsible for the slow intensification observed thus far.
Further intensification remains expected this evening as storms
migrate towards the ND border where low-level moisture is richer. In
the near-term, a few updrafts appear deep enough to utilize the
strong environmental shear sampled by the special sounding
(effective bulk shear near 40 knots with a largely straight
hodograph above 1 km), and will maintain a severe wind/hail threat.

..Moore.. 07/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5H_-cnPxhNUFQF-RTuxyMoXwNwSBHpFBgonu2M6yA1KsJ0gUTfuwIokaerKd1ARGtiqfuuT9b= P-Y73A0Dvvlnd98Q7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46770962 47221042 48111080 48991100 49141063 49150516
48750465 48060444 47380460 46830521 46590671 46550809
46770962=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 130247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130246=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-130345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Southern Michigan...Northern Indiana...Northern
Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 478...

Valid 130246Z - 130345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 478 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues within WW478.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward
across southern Michigan and northern Indiana. The low-level jet
continues to shift eastward with time as does the corridor of
greatest tornado threat. Surface observations indicate generally
backed surface winds along and south of I-95 across southern
Michigan and northern Indiana/Ohio. A funnel cloud was reported
earlier near Van Buren, MI. The rotation with that storm has since
weakened. Loss of daytime heating has led to some reduction of
MLCAPE, though a small corridor of 500-1000 J/kg is noted ahead of
the line across the MI/IN/OH border. Storms along the south end of
the ongoing line within the LLJ and resulting storm relative
helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will continue to be within the most likely
corridor for a short term tornado threat.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Zty4M3p2pT62gKYxbHGRDTv2gge82gRDLEaro5RpaB-01fZD3ayMLSUn-wb2Kn_Dgb3eOT45= YpuIvVSFC3LoTJJ1gI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41598459 41578482 41568506 41518527 41528571 41578589
41618602 41638604 41768609 41928602 42028595 42148587
42368570 42428566 42508561 42638548 42838533 42848506
42818458 42808438 42778404 42758363 42668337 42598321
42498302 42368297 42168297 42058299 41918301 41878306
41758318 41698329 41588367 41578391 41598459=20


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