ACUS11 KWNS 181808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181808=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-182015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...Central to Eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181808Z - 182015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Shallow thunderstorms and building cumulus across central
MT will likely intensify through the afternoon, eventually posing a
severe wind and hail threat. A watch will likely be needed in the
coming hours to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...GOES visible and IR imagery show an uptick in shallow thunderstorms and building cumulus across central to northern MT
over the past couple of hours. This comes amid increasing forcing
for ascent ahead of an approaching upper low and along an advancing
cold front as well as decreasing stabilization due to diurnal
warming and a modest advection of low-level moisture from the east.
Gradual intensification of ongoing storms and new development is
expected through the afternoon as these processes continue and
storms migrate east into an environment with richer boundary-layer
moisture. Storms will initially mature in an environment featuring a
well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates that will
support severe gusts, including the potential for a few significant
gusts. The gradual increase in storm depth with time will allow for
full realization of the strong deep-layer shear recently sampled by
the KGGW VWP (nearly 50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear). This will aid
in storm organization and potentially support several supercells
that will pose a large (to perhaps very large) hail risk across
eastern MT. Although it remains somewhat unclear exactly when storms
will become sufficiently intense/organized to pose a broader severe
risk, a downstream watch across parts of central to eastern MT will
likely be needed in the coming hours.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4BVDFnTe2BY4F4uY_goe1zg56VaUIq7vT9G_-5a3q123LAGptERgmed10fZZg6ySDe2C4YoO2= ETPNBxyhk10_htDYRw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 45971029 46701121 47381190 48411268 49011258 49060402
48150395 46730394 46130393 45700396 45710623 45810821
45840935 45971029=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 130026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130026=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Eastern KS into western/central MO and extreme
northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 130026Z - 130200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase this evening, with
a threat of hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Watch
issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in convection has recently been noted
within a midlevel cloud deck across east-central KS, which is likely
the beginning of an increase in storm coverage and intensity that
will continue through the evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates,
moderate to strong buoyancy, and effective shear of 40+ kt (as noted
on the 00Z TOP sounding) will support organized convection this
evening as storm coverage increases within a low-level warm
advection regime.=20

Initial discrete storms could pose a risk of very large hail, given
the favorable buoyancy and shear. While low-level flow/shear is
currently rather weak, some increase is possible this evening, and a
tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with any supercell that is
sustained within the modified outflow where winds are locally
backed. Some upscale growth is possible later this evening, which
would pose an increasing severe-wind risk as storms tend to
propagate south/southeastward with time. Watch issuance is likely
within the hour in response to these threats.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4D4U68myFDgydZ1KA2cXgyyS83GaepPG2wCFxVqXc8cjxYyC01n453KTVS8no6tIyg5-raU84= 7ugk2xyXJ7kGdfnDbs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39049680 39359485 39299394 39289378 38809260 37029232
36549438 36899575 37609690 37879698 38399712 39049680=20


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