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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1507

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 18, 2022 05:54:21
    ACUS11 KWNS 180554
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180553=20
    MNZ000-180730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1507
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast MN...MN Arrowhead

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...

    Valid 180553Z - 180730Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line is expected to move into more of
    the MN Arrowhead over the next hour. Strong to severe wind gusts and
    large hail are possible within this line.

    DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to progress southward/southeastward across far northwest Ontario towards the
    international border. The strongest updrafts currently exist within
    the western portion of this line, in Lake of the Woods County MN.
    These updrafts are located within a region of very strong buoyancy
    (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) and moderate vertical shear, and could
    produce very large hail as well as strong wind gusts. Buoyancy
    decreases with eastern extent, with mesoanalysis indicated MLCAPE
    decreases from around 3000 J/kg over Lake of the Woods County to 500
    J/kg over Lake County.=20

    As such, the expectation is for the most robust storms to remain
    over north-central MN, with waning updraft intensity eastward over
    the MN Arrowhead. Even so, the organized character of the ongoing,
    line coupled with an environment that supports strong downbursts,
    could still promote strong to severe wind gusts as the outflow
    surges southward into the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Current storm
    motion is around 40 kt, which brings the middle of the line into
    central St. Louis County around 07Z.

    ..Mosier.. 07/18/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-hOBMdHSIzpf_fN-YvMbiivnjD9pc0jwoKp1CcvAi68N5k6AUG2f-aw7sukamKt9FBFC0RzUy= qwi4kBjuQF-XCviKYw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...

    LAT...LON 48749441 48699302 48089150 47279182 47159315 47469428
    48749441=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 12, 2023 21:59:23
    ACUS11 KWNS 122159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122159=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-122330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1507
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0459 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northern/eastern MO into a small part of
    western IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 122159Z - 122330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may intensify into early evening as they move
    southeastward, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed in northern MO.
    Based on satellite and mesoanalysis data, this activity is clearly
    elevated, and likely will remain so in the short term, given
    substantial MLCINH across the region. However, even for elevated
    convection that is likely based around 800 mb, MUCAPE in excess of
    1500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear (supported by rather
    strong midlevel west-northwesterlies) conditionally favor the
    potential for a few organized storms. If any stronger cells/clusters
    can mature and be sustained into the early evening, some severe
    threat may evolve with this activity. Steep midlevel lapse rates
    will favor some hail potential, while a relatively warm and
    well-mixed boundary layer could support isolated damaging gusts,
    despite the relatively strong MLCINH.

    Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the evolution of this
    convection into the early evening, given its elevated nature and
    relative lack of stronger large-scale ascent across the area. Watch
    issuance is currently considered unlikely, but will become possible
    if organized storms develop or appear imminent.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!864Hlw6tB2ALiH4wUfF1EPW4ikU585cj7nklDuob-v9JLyfeAc7sTvdec7ys8F94Zi73CPWRL= Bd5AsMVxVTCWgM3CYs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38009052 39109345 39569350 39899337 39789219 39569145
    39249070 39049034 38648961 38388969 38109003 38009052=20


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