• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1506

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 18, 2022 05:33:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 180533
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180533=20
    AZZ000-180730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1506
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

    Areas affected...Southwest/West-Central AZ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 180533Z - 180730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gusts will remain possible for the
    next hour or two downstream of the ongoing convective line across
    west-central AZ.

    DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms currently west of PHX has
    recently shown some increase in northwesterly motion as the outflow
    surges northwestward. Moderate to strong southeasterly flow is in
    place over the region above 3 km , with weak flow within the deeply
    mixed air mass below 3 km. This cluster has already produced a few
    severe gusts at PHX and LUF, measuring 53 kt and 55 kt,
    respectively.=20

    Expectation is for this line to continue progressing northwestward
    while maintaining its intensity for the next hour or two. High-based
    character of the storms coupled with the deeply mixed boundary-layer
    and favorable orientation of the deep-layer vertical shear should
    promote the potential for additional strong to severe wind gusts. Limited/isolated character of the severe potential should preclude
    the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/18/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4JeLUfooPA8MyRWoXND-8d9kWmkhjAof5z3974B0kmUpCthFu3IBZ5n8TVWAsZ4T9qwK7Q3Yh= 7bwbleSWFe18hCx51w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 33291260 33381350 33961423 34611382 34201218 33531225
    33291260=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 12, 2023 20:06:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 122006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122005=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-122130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1506
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0305 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

    Areas affected...Northern Illinois and far southern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 122005Z - 122130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely across northern Illinois and
    possibly southern Wisconsin by 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...The air mass is recovering rapidly across northern
    Illinois in the wake of the morning MCS. An EML, advecting eastward
    amid 40-50 knots of mid-level flow has cleared out cloud cover and
    allowed for surface heating across eastern Iowa and northwest
    Illinois. Temperatures in this area have warmed into the low 80s
    with dewpoints remaining steady, or even climbing slightly, into the
    low 70s. Temperatures remain in the 60s across northern Illinois,
    but expect this warm front to lift quickly northeast through the
    evening as a result of surface heating north of this front and
    strengthening low-level flow in response to the deepening surface
    cyclone across eastern Iowa.

    Additional heating, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead
    of the approaching shortwave trough should result in 1500 to 2000
    J/kg MLCAPE by this evening across northern and northeast Illinois.
    This instability will be co-located with a strong, veering wind
    profile (sampled by the 20Z LOT VWP). Expect a similar wind profile
    (featuring 200+ m2/s2 0-500m SRH) to remain along the outflow boundary/composite front through the evening. Supercells are
    expected to form along this boundary as ascent increases ahead of a
    digging mid-level shortwave trough and within the left-exit region
    of the upper-level jet. Southerly winds ahead of the surface low
    will provide sufficient low-level streamwise vorticity for a tornado
    threat. However, any storms which remain along or slightly
    north/east of the boundary, where more backed surface winds will be
    present, should ingest much higher SRH and will pose a greater
    tornado threat and even the potential for a strong tornado. In
    addition, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

    A tornado watch is likely by 4pm to cover this threat.

    ..Bentley.. 07/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9yYnkhGk3WdQwhTRXgulxwkX__Y4DCGvAaG1Bsi90GdnH_wbWZaGwtOSA1-kjmwLc-7squCFJ= mKjK_w9rwffItgZFMI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40998855 41538984 41929004 42299010 42539006 42618930
    42578790 42318761 41768749 41248754 40998855=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)