ACUS11 KWNS 180424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180424=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-180630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Areas affected...Northeastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 180424Z - 180630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may cross the international border, with
isolated large hail and damaging wind potential into parts of North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Two areas of storms are currently threatening the
border regions of northern MN and ND. The leading MCS is currently
over western ON, with a cluster of storms possibly producing hail
now into northern Lake of the Woods County. Given light westerly
winds in the lowest few km across eastern ND and a high theta-e air
mass, an isolated severe hail threat may affect some northwestern MN
counties for a few more hours.

To the west, a large cluster of cells is moving rapidly
east/southeast across SK, and will soon affect southwestern MB.
Given the size of this cluster, a substantial outflow boundary may
develop, and this could initiate new development southeastward into
ND. The highly variable surface dewpoint measurements make it
difficult to ascertain precise boundary-layer moisture conditions,
but the presence of steep lapse rates suggest any robust outflow
from these Canadian storms may initiate new updrafts across the
international border. Trends will be monitored closely over the next
several hours.

..Jewell/Grams.. 07/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Xv1vAij8j1hEu1oMS321iLjtCoMWYL-mKGnc3inXN1McOJ7I2rAL-stf55ftF2ru1W9GxcFy= eXgsLdALFxR9_xuKWs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48570018 48990022 48999928 48999688 48989515 49429517
49409492 49339475 48809457 48659440 48329440 47779589
47549681 47479746 47679824 48039891 48570018=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 121344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121344=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-121515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa and northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

Valid 121344Z - 121515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat is expected to persist through the
morning. Currently a downstream watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A bowing segment has developed across eastern Iowa
ahead of the main squall line. Reflectivity and velocity from KDVN
suggest a rear inflow jet may be developing which could increase the
potential for some damaging wind gusts across eastern Iowa. However,
farther east, across northern Illinois and far eastern Iowa where
this bowing segment is moving toward, temperatures are in the mid
60s with progressively decreasing instability. Therefore, expect
intensity of this bowing segment to wane once it reaches northern
Illinois. Extension of watch 476 into eastern Iowa has been
coordinated with WFO DVN to cover the near-term threat, but a
downstream severe thunderstorm watch into Illinois is unlikely at
this time.

..Bentley/Bunting.. 07/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CkeMbs1E2AGvoton82Qj3k45tmmyGLQAf0f-JvvoheMsx6RwweWx8efWYzizKXai4-RsrrRx= J9y9nM3dmWnziVd_CU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...

LAT...LON 41299184 41519202 41849199 41979198 42259108 42288989
42198934 41698922 41288980 41219109 41299184=20


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