• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1492

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 16, 2022 17:37:14
    ACUS11 KWNS 161737
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161736=20
    DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-162030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into northern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161736Z - 162030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and
    damaging winds should spread slowly eastward this afternoon. Watch
    issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...There are rather prevalent low/mid-level clouds
    associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over parts of western/northern VA into western MD. To the east of these clouds,
    filtered diurnal heating should continue this afternoon along/south
    of a weak boundary that extends across southern portions of the
    Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures climb further into the 80s and
    90s across the warm sector, weak to moderate instability will aid
    thunderstorm development. This process has already begun across
    parts of south-central VA into northern/central NC. Low/mid-level
    flow should remain fairly modest across these regions, but some
    enhancement to the mid-level westerlies (around 20-30 kt) associated
    with the weak shortwave trough could foster convective organization
    this afternoon. A mix of pulse thunderstorms and loosely organized
    multicells should spread slowly eastward over the next few hours.
    Isolated gusty to perhaps damaging downdraft winds should be the
    main threat as low-level lapse rates become steepened. Occasional
    marginally severe hail may also occur, as mid-level temperatures are
    seasonably cool. Current expectations are for the overall severe
    threat to remain rather isolated/marginal through the rest of the
    afternoon, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 07/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8GNARMii7TNWCoiOOKgkLoMfI6eB59f2N40FxcJXC8AjqFjFl7m-SbI60_JUmhHdi1T5fyjPi= eAYB6sq_9GzsVxrR90$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 39647710 39657641 39607586 39197541 38707560 37697621
    37017671 36197743 35817813 35767862 35957935 36177997
    36677979 37157932 37687859 38807763 39647710=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 11, 2023 00:10:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 110010
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110010=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-110215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0710 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...western into central Kansas...the Texas and
    Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma...parts of east central
    New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468...

    Valid 110010Z - 110215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a
    risk for severe hail and wind will remain possible into the 8-10 PM
    CDT time frame, with the potential for one or two clusters of storms
    to gradually evolve. A new watch will probably be issued prior to
    the scheduled expiration off WW 468.

    DISCUSSION...Eastward advancing outflow, from convection earlier
    near the Front Range, did contribute to sufficient forcing to
    support initiation of thunderstorm activity in stronger instability
    near the Colorado/Kansas border, between the two earlier initiating
    clusters. This convection persists as well, but remains modest in
    the face of strong inhibition associated with warm elevated
    mixed-layer air. This airmass includes 16-18 C around 700 mb, in a
    plume east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains through
    much of western Kansas, northwestern Oklahoma and the Texas
    Panhandle.

    Beneath 20+ kt northwesterly mid-level flow, which is contributing
    to strong shear, various model output continues to suggest that
    forcing along developing cold pools progressing through a corridor
    of large potential instability may maintain thunderstorm development
    through the 01-03Z time frame. How strong remains unclear, but
    stronger low-level warm advection along a remnant zone of stronger
    differential surface heating across the Panhandle region seems to
    offer one potential focus for an upscale growing cluster. Other
    model output suggests that merging/consolidating convection south of
    North Platte and east of McCook Nebraska might also contribute to a
    more prominent upscale growing cluster.

    ..Kerr.. 07/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-nje2tZqKQ4K9I9sFO-cjpvACOLqrK3WA6I_ayvjPcjizRYvvNPWRbf9-1jKd1biby2m3iLv-= 1IjZRun6CZyCYhyeXk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 39560042 39619870 37559859 34940012 34420079 34670181
    36310207 37110146 38400105 39560042=20


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