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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1490

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 16, 2022 04:00:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 160400
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160359=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-160530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1490
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

    Areas affected...Western North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 160359Z - 160530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms will spread across
    western North Dakota, primarily after midnight. Gusty winds and hail
    are the main risks. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted
    if coverage increases.

    DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough has progressed through all but the
    eastern most portions of MT late this evening. This feature has now
    topped the High Plains ridge and will soon begin digging southeast
    across the western Dakotas. Remnants of high-based convection that
    evolved over central/southern MT have progressed to near the ND
    border. This activity is likely producing at least gusty winds along
    with isolated severe hail, in excess of 1 inch, especially west of
    SDY. Some increase in LLJ has been observed over the western Dakotas
    over the last few hours and there is some concern this convection
    may not completely dissipate as it spreads downstream into a
    modestly buoyant air mass. Additionally, one significant supercell
    is digging southeast across southeast SK, roughly 80mi north of the
    border. This storm should continue propagating toward northwest ND
    along the cool side of a boundary draped from near Regina into the
    northern High Plains. Latest HREF guidance suggests additional
    convection may evolve along this warm-advection corridor.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 07/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WRs7R5PoLmEGNGJcTNeNxehhlVTlg2IU6AC46fF90U4GNRhdgvb-7m4P_cNV5n-CVc5jcI_p= CcHaR8YNk8Y53V6Xo0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46630414 48880372 48790131 46760252 46630414=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 10, 2023 22:59:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 102259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102259=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1490
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0559 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Central Nebraska into eastern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

    Valid 102259Z - 110000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across WW469.

    DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop across portions of central
    and northeastern Nebraska into northwestern Iowa. Storm mode has
    favored semi-discrete and clustered cells with reports of large hail
    reported up to 2 inch and gusty winds up to 60 mph. Surface
    objective analysis indicates around MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg
    along with deep layer shear around 40-50 knots near and ahead of the
    ongoing convection. Storm mode will likely remain semi-discrete with
    attempts at upscale growth along congealing outflows. Given steep
    mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear, large hail and damaging
    winds will continue to be the main threats. With upscale growth, the
    threat will likely transition to damaging winds through the evening.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9DbIJ_qzkmLZ_YsMXhE_Mc8HcF13cxr5iHSq8SKnYtkCbczvUwP6aaY-U2qU716bVIG959NYL= 7Ieq8kJVIuAr1J9EAw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41110132 41420131 41540133 41790118 42140024 42279968
    42409887 42559827 42779760 42889737 43049700 43309630
    43459592 43529569 43549552 43569539 43569514 43409480
    43049472 42899477 42689492 42399525 42019600 41659690
    41359763 41089848 40849913 40660011 40680068 40750095
    41110132=20


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