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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1488

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 15, 2022 23:02:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 152302
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152302=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-160030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1488
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0602 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

    Areas affected...Central and eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...470...

    Valid 152302Z - 160030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469, 470
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread across eastern portions of ww469
    over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across western MT
    and is forecast to top the ridge downstream near the ND/MT border
    later tonight. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of
    this short wave with the strongest storms now spreading across
    central MT toward the High Plains. While a few strong storms linger
    over the higher terrain near BTM, the greatest concentration of
    convection is now maturing into a loosely organized cluster from
    near BIL into Rosebud County. This activity will spread into the
    southwestern portions of ww470 around 16/00z. With some increase in
    LLJ expected over eastern MT later this evening, it appears severe
    threat will linger well after sunset. Locally damaging winds and
    hail are expected.

    ..Darrow.. 07/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4sXovzI9vkiUeo9R-QbQOqWd6Oy61x5CPdK4kqgtwro9a8RMoVgGXbciH-M2bBmTCH5AR90mx= o3kn6g3f-da-8ctZCQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 45271132 49031118 49040679 48760638 48740393 45620474
    45630700 45630715 45290718 45271132=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 10, 2023 22:00:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 102200
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102159=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-110000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1488
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...parts of southwestern Nebraska...eastern
    Colorado...western Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468...

    Valid 102159Z - 110000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development
    remains possible into the 6-8 PM CDT time frame, with at least one
    upscale growing cluster possibly beginning to evolve across far
    southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle vicinity.=20
    Areas to the south of WW 468 are still being monitored for an
    additional severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development
    continues to propagate slowly eastward into lee surface troughing,
    where a more moist boundary-layer has become characterized by large
    CAPE, but remains fairly strongly capped based on latest
    mesoanalysis. Storm motions are slow due to weak deep-layer mean
    flow on the order of 15 kts or less, but, due to veering profiles
    with height, deep-layer shear is strong and supportive of organized
    convection, including supercells.

    Highest potential for continuing storm development into 23-01Z may
    remain focused roughly northwest through north of the Goodland
    vicinity, where inhibition appears weakest, and north through east
    of the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle
    vicinity, where activity may be aided by forcing associated with a
    perturbation rounding the northeast periphery of the subtropical
    high. The southern storm development may begin to focus and
    organize along a zone of stronger differential surface heating
    extending northwest through southeast across the Panhandle vicinity.

    ..Kerr.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_HExE2mX5OtN7rQmCjw_tKNzpFbkAI4vf0WjgjFz98Zy3eN0nSqlsXfLe4ddyOHmas_0qNfS0= y1RPrwPOQzQC2l38QY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 39750160 40540104 39769982 37390109 35970039 35220176
    35200332 35790330 36390272 37320275 37970266 39280224
    39750160=20


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