• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1487

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 15, 2022 19:59:11
    ACUS11 KWNS 151959
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151958=20
    MTZ000-152200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1487
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0258 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

    Areas affected...central into northeast Montana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

    Valid 151958Z - 152200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A swath of strong to severe wind gusts is expected to
    continue to develop with an organizing cluster of storms spreading
    into the Jordan, Lake Fort Peck and Glasgow areas through 3-5 PM
    MDT. Areas east of WW 469 are being monitored for the possibility
    of an additional severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis suggests that there remains
    substantive lingering inhibition for the deepening mixed boundary
    layer. But it is weakening, with little to obstruct insolation
    downstream of ongoing thunderstorm development. And forced lift
    along the leading edge of a strengthening cold pool has supported
    intensifying convection in a band now east of the Harlowton and
    Great Falls areas. This still appears to be advancing
    east-northeastward at up to around 40 kt.

    Across the Fort Peck Lake vicinity, and areas between Jordan and
    Glasgow, surface dew points remain in the upper 50s to near 60F.=20
    Although these may mix-out some as temperatures continue to warm
    through the 90s F, thermodynamic profiles characterized very steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates probably will still be conducive
    to further intensification of convection, including potential for
    increasingly widespread severe wind gusts. There has been a signal
    within various model output, including a number of runs of the High
    Resolution Rapid Refresh and the 12Z NAM, suggesting that an
    increasingly organized convective system will be accompanied by the
    development of a strong rear inflow jet in excess of 50 kt by
    22-23Z.

    ..Kerr.. 07/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_cuYkqmfJWd6OfkUNdpaDz49HU25Z2KAbNAeCpWsSPLqw_lVIdFbCDjuVJ7vmVfyqUmHiOeAR= 6C1EafzCQRGMDmOSq0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 48300985 48900758 47800647 46670692 45980971 47380954
    48300985=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 10, 2023 20:43:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 102043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102042=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-102245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1487
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Far southeastern MN...northern WI...and southern
    Upper MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 102042Z - 102245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of damaging winds
    and large hail should increase during the next few hours. A watch
    may eventually be needed for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops indicate deepening cumulus
    along an east-west-oriented cold front draped across parts of Upper
    MI, northern WI, and east-central MN. Continued diurnal
    destabilization amid frontal convergence should support increasing
    convective development during the next couple hours in the vicinity
    of the front as it moves slowly southward. Around 40 kt of effective
    shear oriented parallel to the cold front should favor a couple
    organized clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable of
    damaging winds and isolated large hail. With the stronger deep-layer
    flow/shear generally confined to the cool side of the cold front, it
    is somewhat unclear how organized storms will be as they progress
    southward into the stronger surface-based instability into the early
    evening. Environmental and convective trends will be monitored
    during the next couple hours for a potential watch issuance.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9H5Mapyf4Ue9Z8pW9MCF3Imqv2wrMn3-QJe8yxGFi0DJwhT76eFBhiChhsiEg1gPjJnbBvHJH= _LmdwJmDd4v8WqtjeM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45328659 45948623 46208640 46318677 46278740 46228833
    46138997 45989094 45789198 45579268 45309326 45019348
    44579354 44199316 44009271 44039203 44129150 44439022
    44668915 44978716 45328659=20


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