• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1484

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 14, 2022 20:38:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 142038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142037=20
    TXZ000-142300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1484
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of central into south-central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142037Z - 142300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to damaging winds will remain possible as thunderstorms spread southwestward over the next few hours. Watch
    issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures have soared into the upper 90s and low
    100s across parts of central TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorm
    clusters moving mostly south-southwestward. This activity remains
    loosely organized, with generally 15-20 kt of mid-level
    north-northeasterly flow present per area VWPs and recent
    mesoanalysis estimates. Around 1000-1600 J/kg of DCAPE, the presence
    of steep low-level lapse rates, and inverted-v RAP forecast
    soundings suggest a continued threat for isolated strong to damaging
    winds over the next few hours. Based on recent radar trends, the
    greatest threat for sporadic wind damage in the short term may exist
    along the western portion of the ongoing convective cluster,
    generally from the vicinity of San Angelo to Lampasas TX and points
    southward. Weak deep-layer shear should continue to limit overall
    thunderstorm organization/intensity, and watch issuance is not
    expected.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_D2C8VVWc-N3RDQmzNKzdhWqCebpeh7Bxcs7ZM1RJgohVPfiJnL03tJ2xsup8m3zDcD3k-nYX= fPgklfMQlSeNDjEDCA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32320063 32509928 32449907 32259888 31789862 31259834
    30699808 30109739 29739684 29309616 28209770 28189925
    28890016 29840114 30480145 31290147 31820135 32320063=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 10, 2023 19:09:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 101909
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101909=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-102115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1484
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of NE...southeastern SD...and northwestern
    IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101909Z - 102115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-storm
    potential this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
    needed in the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate a northeast-southwest-oriented pre-frontal trough/wind shift extending
    from southeastern SD into northern NE. Along the wind shift in SD,
    strong surface heating amid upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints is
    supporting a locally uncapped air mass and isolated thunderstorm
    development. While weak large-scale ascent over the surface boundary
    casts uncertainty on storm coverage, around 40-50 kt of effective
    shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will
    conditionally support organized storms including supercells this
    afternoon into the evening. The weak large-scale ascent and
    deep-layer shear vectors oriented perpendicular to the boundary
    should favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially, with a
    risk of large hail (some up to 2 inches in diameter) and locally
    damaging gusts. With time, localized clustering will be possible
    owing to storm splits/mergers, and the severe-wind risk could
    increase as a result. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
    needed in the next hour or two.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4fGqIcq21pESmaLzvlJgApiA64kqXw0H4p83yNUmgjq49y-rtYCDDue-V8xP0PuANQkHh5gbR= oYzwR06KfZxvcVN2AU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40020053 40100100 40540143 41030146 41350135 41710099
    41940070 42200030 42479990 42869926 43079872 43359798
    43469743 43549677 43479607 43449554 43289507 42949483
    42509490 42109523 41689577 41129679 40679789 40059974
    40020053=20


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