• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1481

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 14, 2022 18:46:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 141846
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141845=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-142115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1481
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0145 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of north FL and southern GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141845Z - 142115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur as
    thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed
    along/south of a front across parts of north FL and southern GA.
    Weak low-level flow strengthens very modestly at mid/upper levels
    based on recent VWPs from KTLH/KVAX, with a general eastward
    component to ongoing activity. A moderately unstable and moist
    low-level airmass, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, is present across
    the warm sector. Low-level lapse rates are becoming modestly
    steepened as strong diurnal heating continues, and occasional strong
    to damaging winds will be possible with any convective downdrafts.
    Regardless, weak effective bulk shear should limit overall
    convective intensity and organization through the rest of the
    afternoon, with pulse to loosely organized multicell thunderstorms
    possible. Therefore, watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-x-LbcpevbSegP5AjV94yX8jJxyn7qYKxzBrHr90JrKQwRIC847WVLs9GaEsSQthK1XvyiaYm= XMzfx58kjqdYkjQ7fQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30548474 30728470 31078427 31298366 31348331 31418306
    31818275 32148219 32108169 31998125 31748104 31518112
    31228124 30838140 30468133 30168149 30028175 30068397
    30158424 30348459 30548474=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 10, 2023 01:11:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 100111
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100111=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-100345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1481
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0811 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

    Areas affected...North-central Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 100111Z - 100345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across
    parts of the upper Mississippi Valley this evening. Hail and strong
    gusty winds will be possible. The severe threat is expected to be
    too marginal for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a cold front draped from
    central North Dakota into western Ontario, with several surface
    troughs located across a moist airmass from the northern Plains into
    the western Great Lakes. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate
    instability from eastern North Dakota into north-central Minnesota,
    where widely scattered thunderstorms have developed early this
    evening. MLCAPE in this area is estimated to be as great as 1200
    J/kg. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs suggest that moderate
    deep-layer shear is in place across much of central and northern
    Minnesota, with 0-6 km shear estimated to be in the 40 to 50 knot
    range. This environment should support an isolated severe threat
    this evening. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary
    threats. However, the severe potential should remain marginal,
    mainly due to a lack of large-scale ascent across the region.

    ..Broyles.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Xda93dlKuEY6JyVoGPid2gcoDe5nsBrI7pDm3aULDiL3QODxyjP8E9ukt_cGGlgoiEpcGsL2= tQ-9oaRMqshoPTVin8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 45839570 46679676 47189704 47559701 47869671 47999614
    47989560 47829492 47099340 46619295 46179291 45739318
    45459386 45449481 45839570=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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