• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1476

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 13, 2022 23:57:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 132356
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132356=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-140200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1476
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0656 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132356Z - 140200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a severe wind and hail
    risk this evening. This threat should remain very localized; a watch
    is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across parts of northwest
    KS within the past couple of hours. This activity is developing
    within a low-level thermal ridge on the periphery of a thermal low
    to the west across eastern CO. Weak ascent through this region has
    resulted in slow maturation of this convection, but recent data from
    KGLD shows robust cells that have demonstrated some degree of
    persistence. Additional, but weaker, convection is noted across
    parts of southwest NE as well within a cumulus field. Given the weak
    forcing for ascent, it is unclear if this activity will persist for
    more than 1-2 hours. However, the environment across the region is conditionally supportive of organized convection with around 1000
    J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs based on RAP forecast
    soundings. Temperatures near 100 F with dewpoints in the 50s suggest
    a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place that could support
    severe downburst winds, and the favorable wind profile may allow for
    severe hail with the more organized storms. Despite the environment,
    confidence in storm duration and coverage is low, therefore a watch
    is not expected.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 07/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!47cOCbYbpbe_6sQJXMnbxAxkL_qDoYUSVZGQt1cMbqboEb2egCmcJreyORMNwg01WvBIrvSKl= 3CLEKRQby3YP5UMnE8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38640165 39260184 40260181 40900147 41190097 41120011
    40789991 40189987 39509995 38920011 38600043 38480108
    38640165=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 09, 2023 17:38:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 091738
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091738=20
    NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-091915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1476
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern New York...Vermont...and western
    Massachusetts

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091738Z - 091915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...There will be an isolated damaging wind threat across
    portions of the Northeast this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Surface-based destabilization has occurred beneath
    filtered clouds across eastern New York, Vermont, and western
    Massachusetts. Some thunderstorms have started to form over the
    mountains. Expect additional development later this afternoon as the
    shortwave trough, currently across western Pennsylvania, moves
    northeast. MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, coupled with 20-25 knots
    of effective shear, could be sufficient for a few multicell clusters
    capable of isolated wind damage within an environment otherwise
    supporting mostly sub-severe convection.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8VOYV0V2rlyl8yDpxkVGrer2GXIBsghhI6XcQZdqyUad60I2CpTwRjV28v1LjtRAkJDhdNRPt= ztNqqwz80TEClryowM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

    LAT...LON 42037350 43407454 44507495 45097463 45237238 44687189
    42927200 42237248 41957291 42037350=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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