ACUS11 KWNS 132132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132132=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-132330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Texas to northern Louisiana and southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132132Z - 132330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the late afternoon and early evening. These storms will pose a risk
for damaging winds and perhaps sporadic large hail. A watch is not
expected given the isolated nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the Texarkana
area and east TX/western LA as surface-based parcels reach their
convective temperatures within a diffuse stalled frontal boundary.
With temperatures exceeding 100 F across the region, dewpoint
depressions have increased to 30-40 F and are indicative of
steep-low level lapse rates (which are estimated to be between 8-9
C/km based on latest RAP mesoanalysis). Furthermore, RAP forecast
soundings hint that column theta-e deficits are between 20-30 K with
SBCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg and minimal inhibition. This thermodynamic profile is favorable for strong downbursts capable of
damaging winds. Although mid-level temperatures are fairly warm
(above -10 C), sporadic large hail is possible with the stronger
updraft pulses given the favorable CAPE profiles and some mid-level
flow (around 20-25 knots based on regional VWPs). The propensity for
these threats will be correlated with storm coverage, but given the
limited forcing for ascent, storm coverage should be limited and
will negate the need for a watch.

..Moore/Grams.. 07/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9vkeu0aOOUwKBUVKLR-Xj7HONfcNpDflUmDFIllNHBmfSfvlqF_I4wPLOHFUo5eFCuPXc5S8V= ESARALE0i4by3mZ4n0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30539371 29819609 30819707 31859694 33499598 34159544
34389431 34239328 33519216 32949165 32079154 30979153
30539157 30539371=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 091523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091523=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-091700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...Central North Carolina and south-central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091523Z - 091700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will increase across central North
Carolina and southern Virginia by early afternoon. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms developed along a pre-frontal
trough this morning across western North Carolina. There have been a
few reports of wind damage and measured wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
The environment continues to improve ahead of this activity with
temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
yielding an uncapped airmass according to SPC mesoanalysis.
Therefore, despite 12Z CAM guidance insistence this morning activity
should dissipate, expect it to continue eastward as destabilization
continues with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg by early to
mid-afternoon. Effective shear around 30 to 35 knots will support
multicell storm clusters and potentially some rotating updrafts.
However, a warm/moist thermodynamic profile should limit hail
potential with water loaded-downdrafts as the primary threat.=20
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed shortly to cover the
threat from the ongoing storms and any additional development which
may occur.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-oOYOWFbxxovKtskVETJEDCiE78ohNQY0cOKfo825eZNRwlQ2LgO2RsnGV1j_gTn4N0AlxllI= DM6hucWOrl-Z0sRJpU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35518122 36058060 36568018 37027921 37097787 36077749
34857858 34587971 34808083 35518122=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 091532
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091531 COR
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-091700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...Central North Carolina and south-central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091531Z - 091700Z

CORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD IN DISCUSSION

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will increase across central North
Carolina and southern Virginia by early afternoon. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms developed along a pre-frontal
trough this morning across western North Carolina. There have been a
few reports of wind damage and measured wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
The environment continues to improve ahead of this activity with
temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
yielding an uncapped airmass according to SPC mesoanalysis.
Therefore, despite some 12Z CAM guidance insistence this morning
activity should dissipate (ie. 12Z HRRR), expect it to continue
eastward as destabilization continues with MLCAPE around 1500 to
2000 J/kg by early to mid-afternoon. Effective shear around 30 to 35
knots will support multicell storm clusters and potentially some
rotating updrafts. However, a warm/moist thermodynamic profile
should limit hail potential with water loaded-downdrafts as the
primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed shortly to
cover the threat from the ongoing storms and any additional
development which may occur.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8EvFPXduxiVQvAOyHhzKtu-ScNqvTKTWwe8WMh8UYEaIXJnv1Qb9Ha_AEMtrP8HumRQeq5o4Z= CvK66kBwZFBHCvieeE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35518122 36058060 36568018 37027921 37097787 36077749
34857858 34587971 34808083 35518122=20


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