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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1472

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 13, 2022 21:31:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 132131
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132131=20
    WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-140000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1472
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0431 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

    Areas affected...northern UT...eastern ID

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132131Z - 140000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) are
    possible through the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic this
    afternoon shows scattered high-based thunderstorms developing from
    northwest UT northward into southeast ID. The airmass has become
    marginally unstable (500 J/kg MLCAPE) per RAP forecast soundings.=20
    Deep-layer shear is relatively limited over the area with storm mode
    favoring pulse to weakly organized multicells. The very steep
    surface to 400mb lapse rate, featuring inverted-v profiles, will
    support ample evaporative cooling and the risk for severe gusts with
    the stronger downdrafts. The overall isolated character of the risk
    for severe will likely preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm
    watch.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 07/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_SbHzTAVsq-B2AXUr1HmWBsLUyRGvn42uHxa8tqLOXtB0zzgUQZOk4LR2pHXHqAR8xh1RlnC= 86o6CLtvju3x21nhoI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

    LAT...LON 44331181 44151260 43771309 40491401 40011378 39961266
    40301196 43711100 44191124 44331181=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 09, 2023 14:29:23
    ACUS11 KWNS 091429
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091428=20 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-091600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1472
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0928 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...far southern New
    York...western New Jersey...and the DelMarva

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091428Z - 091600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing threat for wind damage from water-loaded
    downbursts by midday.

    DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass has advected inland across the
    Mid-Atlantic with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. A somewhat dense stratus/stratocumulus deck has accompanied this low-level moisture
    advection which is stunting heating across the region. However,
    minimal heating is needed with SPC mesoanalysis indicating no
    inhibition and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Some thunderstorms have
    already formed along a surface trough in central Pennsylvania. Given
    the weak capping, expect widespread thunderstorm by mid-day.
    However, this lack of capping will also limit greater
    destabilization and thus may mute the severe weather potential,
    especially given the weak lapse rates and moist thermodynamic
    profile. However, this moist environment (12Z IAD PWAT above the
    90th percentile), will be favorable for water-loaded updrafts which
    could support strong downbursts capable of wind damage.=20

    The greatest severe weather threat will likely be late this morning
    into the early afternoon when storms remain more discrete as
    meridional upper-level flow should support upscale growth with heavy
    rain eventually becoming the greater hazard. A severe thunderstorm
    watch may be needed by midday.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jBTXIAmVBHcv9SKKQrLy_ZjsBBs_XNUxlPZXYR5cuQvQsQ5QtwHdUJkU55Zrh3-dRbFIsx75= s2xHb40Wzk4kde1ItM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39907801 40857706 41307663 41807620 41937513 41807435
    40697438 39687511 38977592 38827658 38857723 39267775
    39907801=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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