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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1470

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 13, 2022 19:45:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 131945
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131944=20
    MTZ000-132215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1470
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131944Z - 132215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts will probably
    warrant watch issuance this afternoon. Isolated hail may occur as
    well.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
    across the higher terrain of western MT as glancing ascent
    associated with an upper trough over WA and BC overspreads the
    northern Rockies and High Plains. Robust diurnal heating has
    occurred across parts of western/central MT to the east of an area
    of persistent cloudiness, with surface temperatures generally
    warming into the low 90s. Corresponding mixing of the boundary layer
    is supporting very steep and nearly dry adiabatic low-level lapse
    rates. Although low-level moisture remains somewhat limited, there
    is sufficient mid-level moisture to support robust convection.

    Modest enhancement to the mid-level wind field is also present
    across this region, sandwiched between the upper trough across WA/BC
    and the prominent upper ridge centered over the Southwest into the
    High Plains. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear appears
    adequate for updraft organization. Multicell clusters should be the
    dominant thunderstorm mode as convection spreads off the higher
    terrain of the northern Rockies and into the adjacent northern High
    Plains over the next several hours. Given the deeply mixed boundary
    layer, scattered severe/damaging wind gusts should be the primary
    threat. Some of these gusts may exceed 75 mph on an isolated basis.
    Isolated large hail may also occur with the strongest embedded
    cores. Given expectations for the severe wind threat to gradually
    increase through the rest of the afternoon, Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance will probably be needed.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7IJAEhk___ey-kfRVmtASJHpxHavWohmQZyFGe7FeBvpKITpUaHDKVra1jhcWaXzzHzKdLxYc= bIRPzAnp9adrYOEJJI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 46371210 47831135 49021027 49020744 47150804 46070913
    45381023 45221125 45361217 46371210=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 09, 2023 08:38:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 090838
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090838=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-091015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1470
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western and central OK into north TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463...

    Valid 090838Z - 091015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Gusts to 70 mph and isolated hail to 2 inches possible the
    next 1-2 hours across WW 463.

    DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing segment is tracking across
    southwest OK early this morning at around 50 kt. Several gusts to 70
    mph have been measured over the past 1-2 hours. This bow will
    continue to move across an area characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg
    MUCAPE and 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Boundary-layer
    inhibition increases markedly south of the Red River. However, a
    75-85 kt rear inflow jet, as sampled by KFDR, will likely maintain
    severe gust potential the next couple of hours as the bow approaches
    the Red River. A moist and unstable airmass is in place across north
    Texas, and severe gust potential may persist outside of WW 463.=20

    Additional more isolated/semi-discrete supercells are developing in
    a band from the OKC Metro east/southeast toward southeast OK in warm
    advection ahead of the advancing bow. These supercells may continue
    to pose a risk for strong/severe gusts and large hail around 1-2 in
    diameter.

    A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon downstream into south-central/southeast OK and north Texas.

    ..Leitman.. 07/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-eLnQrLiHAQ7nf4U2Sp4nYHi5Yq2IUVaJuNIXCFbcbE10ed1m-po_shLkJxN1bvDp3IPK-EaA= 1gp4Nl7aope2VxxJ8Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34589989 35119957 35409894 35719783 35639726 34879564
    34169526 33649520 33319549 33159633 33149735 33279808
    33479861 33769928 34209968 34589989=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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