ACUS11 KWNS 131726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131726=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-132030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far southern Lower MI...northeastern
IN...and northern OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131726Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may
occur as thunderstorms move east-southeastward this afternoon. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across far southern Lower MI along/near a weak surface front. This
convection is occurring beneath a mid/upper-level trough. Relatively
cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating of a modestly moist
low-level airmass have contributed to the development of weak
instability from parts of southern Lower MI into northern IN/OH.
Generally weak west-northwesterly winds at low levels gradually
strengthen with height through mid levels. Around 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear should support modest updraft organization, with
mainly multicells possible. Isolated instances of strong/gusty winds
and marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust convection
as it moves east-southeastward this afternoon. The weak instability
is expected to limit the overall coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms, and watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4REZMDI040hbufGIo_7P7DDtaTX6cGvtzPKyf-PhOX8FqG9FMGT-Tqc-pjlI-_GQzTdEL6Dao= Tv7uap1Vc8-1rxHFto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON 40828634 41368601 41978520 42158474 42118358 41238069
40618078 40118223 40268539 40828634=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 082219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082218=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-090015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Far Southwest
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462...

Valid 082218Z - 090015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462
continues.

SUMMARY...Wind damage, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two will
be possible across parts of the central High Plains this evening.
The threat will develop southward with time across eastern Colorado
and far western Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 1005 mb low over
south-central Colorado with a quasi-stationary front located across
southeast Colorado. To the northeast of the front, winds are backed
to the east-southeast. A gradually veering wind profile with height
is evident on the Goodland WSR-88D VWP, which is contributing to 0-6
km shear near 55 knots. This, combined with moderate instability and
700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km, analyzed on the RAP, will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. The Goodland VWP also has
0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado
or two will be possible with the stronger and more dominant
supercells. As an MCS organizes, the wind-damage threat is expected
to increase. The wind-damage threat will become maximized along the
leading edge of any line that can form and persist.

..Broyles.. 07/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9H8x5aEq_KbthysHyMFKGpzwwDFwhh8YNSeWzzgJhx1brnzLXN-JAtN6Ey-oJnKBGNBln7-PU= yMDJtykArb8UeUyIpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 37990089 39750129 40990214 41270276 41240342 40940391
40360433 39650438 38790393 37900285 37380243 37130189
37330118 37990089=20


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