• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1464

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 13, 2022 00:26:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 130025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130025=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-130200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1464
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0725 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

    Areas affected...south-central and eastern VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 130025Z - 130200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts (50-60 mph) are possible to the
    southeast of severe thunderstorm watches 464, 465.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of broken linear
    thunderstorm clusters over northern VA extending east to the
    Delmarva and farther southwest into southwest VA. This activity is
    moving east-southeastward and will likely exit the existing severe
    thunderstorm watches over the next 60-90 minutes (prior to 10pm).=20
    However, a gradually cooling boundary layer will likely lead to a
    slow but notable decrease in both the coverage and intensity of the
    stronger gusts. A recent measured severe gust (60 mph) at Quantico,
    VA was observed at 810pm, along with a 49 mph gust at Roanoke, VA.=20
    Current expectation is for strong to locally severe gusts to perhaps
    continue a little beyond the existing severe thunderstorm watches.=20
    However, the coverage/intensity of gusts will likely lessen by 10pm
    and likely preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 07/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-J8FNcz4Wki9FSxYz1prj-lQn3E_gYvBCRNFv78u7IfD89_pKJE_NPx--iKL1sMQjRY3QynnF= JFYkUC93O8YvBcvy0g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36827949 37707823 38047761 38067673 37847618 37417701
    36687856 36517933 36827949=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 08, 2023 20:14:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 082014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082014=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1464
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

    Areas affected...-Southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico and the
    western OK/TX Panhandles.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 082014Z - 082215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered supercells expected through the afternoon with a
    primary threat of large hail and some threat for damaging winds. A
    severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms have started to
    develop across the Front Range where 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE has
    developed. SPC mesoanalysis shows convective inhibition remains
    across the High Plains east of the Front Range and the lack of
    cumulus in this area supports this idea. Therefore, storms may
    struggle to maintain intensity once they move off of the higher
    terrain. However, additional low-level moisture advection and
    heating should further erode the cap and eventually allow for storms
    to maintain intensity east of the mountains and perhaps allow
    additional development.

    Once storms can develop and become rooted, supercells are expected
    given 45-55 knots of effective shear. Large hail, some very large,
    will be the primary threat, but some severe wind gusts are possible,
    especially later in the evening if upscale growth occurs. A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed once rooted surface-based
    storms become apparent.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!87vm2lDOXX4nbRj5mgyQ9rCcUC5PwHivE0SJ9_s3lz-QGnJ4U-O5ooX37jPMWa7tiDdQhVhzs= HZLsZYLcBKZ0D-dOzM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35800508 36830510 37940556 38710554 38780546 39030532
    39080433 38750276 38570214 37050162 36270132 35500163
    35130237 35200302 35800508=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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