• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1463

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 22:12:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 122212
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122211=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-130015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1463
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

    Areas affected...Chesapeake Bay vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462...

    Valid 122211Z - 130015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) are probable with a
    small-scale bow as it moves across the northern portion of
    Chesapeake Bay and into the MD Eastern Shore and southern half of
    DE.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a small-scale bow moving east at
    35kt over Washington D.C. as of 6pm. KJYO (Leesburg, VA) and KIAD
    (Dulles, VA) ASOS's both measured 54kt and 53kt, respectively, in
    the last hour. The airmass over the Chesapeake Bay vicinity is
    characterized as warm/very moist with temperatures near 90 deg F and
    dewpoints in the lower 70s. RAP forecast soundings indicate around
    2000 J/kg MLCAPE and KLWX VAD data indicated around 35kt 0-6 km
    shear. In summary, the near-storm environment and convective mode
    (small bow) remains favorable for strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph)
    in a swath from D.C. to Chesapeake Bay through 7pm. It seems plausible/increasingly likely the intensity of the bow will more or
    less be maintained as it moves across the Eastern Shore and the
    southern half of DE in the 7-8pm timeframe.

    ..Smith.. 07/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4SvMZqEJ5ty55u1gJnD05a12IClhfJ58TwCSzT-K4ZtKbRNh8e1UpyLeevR7Bb5bcOfSxWsFg= COQ5B62Xo3TaI15cBk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39217679 39137604 39007529 38647522 38427532 38447610
    38387680 38577711 38807685 39217679=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 08, 2023 18:38:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 081838
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081838=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-082045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1463
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0138 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

    Areas affected...parts of northeast TX...northwest LA...south
    AR...north MS...and southwest TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081838Z - 082045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across parts of far
    northeast Texas, far northwest Louisiana, southern Arkansas, western
    Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. Trends are being monitored for
    a watch in the next couple hours.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing near a remnant MCV and boundary
    across central Arkansas and northern Mississippi. Ahead and south of
    the convection, temperatures are in the low 90s F and dewpoints are
    in the mid 70s, yielding a moist and strongly unstable troposphere.
    However, short-term RAP forecast profiles in the region show weak
    low-level and deep-layer shear, meaning multicell clusters with
    water-loaded downdrafts should dominate in the area. Therefore, wind
    damage should be the primary threat with these storms, and a
    preferred area of clustering and wind damage may occur along the
    boundary near I-40. With time storms should cluster and move off to
    the east and southeast.

    ..Supinie/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-RqPXnJkIWNvkQmItXt01M1vyUrbuFFExBKJn5YH8wXB4aSNiWIBCZyJPAy7Xe0WhIisI7EES= 11mSPfaUb9Uvuq0MCE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33959445 34579285 35239202 35379154 35449028 35288889
    35038833 34748818 34138828 33818850 33609033 33379147
    32949297 32729409 32989459 33159487 33689481 33899471
    33959445=20


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