ACUS11 KWNS 122201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122201=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-130000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...New England into Maine

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463...

Valid 122201Z - 130000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and severe hail
will continue to move across portions of Maine and towards the New
England coast over the new few hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics continue to track several strong
to severe thunderstorms from northern ME into the New England
region. Several wind damage reports have been noted with this
activity, including a few reports of 1-1.25 inch hail. RAP
mesoanalysis suggests that some of these storms will approach the
eastern extent of favorable buoyancy as they approach the coast;
however, many of these cells are exhibiting signs of mid-level
rotation and/or organized outflow with balanced UDCZs. This
favorable storm organization, coupled with strong deep-layer shear
as sampled by regional VWPs, should support storm maintenance for
the next couple of hours as storms approach the coast. Regional VWPs
are also sampling winds in the lowest 1-2 km between 30-40 mph,
which will maintain somewhat high potential for wind damaging with
the stronger cells.

..Moore.. 07/12/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rJyN1Dbl15Uy374kkXlUamEiiImPC1pSk6Sux_z71IOxBALxhaEGga-YbF5oNjwhqGef8Djt= rNMn-iZJPu7s3uvDYE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 42187334 43157239 44517149 45327102 46776991 47126841
46976776 45906769 44596861 43586999 43077050 42607051
42077077 41667133 41587216 41597271 41647328 41807348
42187334=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 081824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081823=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-082000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southeast Wyoming...and the
Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 081823Z - 082000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected in the next 1
to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A low-level cumulus field has started to expand across
northeast Colorado as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid
70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates this warming is sufficient to erode convective inhibition
across most of this region. Some storms have developed over eastern
Wyoming, the Nebraska Panhandle, and the mountains west of Boulder.
After another hour of heating, expect isolated storm development
across the Plains. Given relatively weak storm-relative inflow
(20-25 knots) expect storms to be somewhat small, but with 45 to 50
knots of shear, expect them to be well-organized supercells with a
threat for large hail and potentially severe wind gusts.=20

The 16Z HRRR convective evolution seems logical with isolated
mini-supercells across the Plains and a more widespread storm
development across the Front Range and the Cheyenne Ridge eventually
congealing and moving southeast later this afternoon/evening. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely, but timing remains uncertain.
Expect a watch will eventually be needed, but if initial activity
remains isolated, it could be deferred until later this afternoon.=20

On the northern periphery, elevated storms have developed and will
drift south and may eventually transition to more surface-based.
These storms are north of the better low-level moisture/instability,
but could pose some severe weather threat.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_M6RDf1LlYLQNJ7ZucKBH8zqbZq1y3Eb2ASXPkzOgofdzuyrQCUEXTVutDJHYyvlQMXwl20zK= VSfTO-ep3FGC1leue4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38640509 39150553 40150575 40960580 41990571 42760523
42950434 42970372 42730323 41150221 39550207 38600367
38640509=20


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