• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1461

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 21:45:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 122144
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122144=20
    COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-122345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1461
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0444 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

    Areas affected...Central to southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 122144Z - 122345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to severe storms will likely continue
    through the evening hours and will pose a risk of severe hail and
    downburst winds in the immediate lee of the Rockies. This threat
    will most likely remain fairly isolated, and a watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...VWPs along the high Plains of CO and southeast WY show
    relatively weak flow throughout most of the column. Despite the poor
    deep-layer shear across the region, thunderstorms that have
    developed off the high terrain over the past couple of hours are
    effectively utilizing the 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and steep mid-level
    lapse rates (between 8-9 C/km per latest RAP forecast soundings).
    Short-lived, but intense updrafts in the lee of the Rockies have
    produced several one-inch hail stones over the past hour or so. This
    trend will likely continue through the remainder of the evening
    hours. In additional to severe hail, steep low-level lapse rates
    near 9 C/km may also support the potential for strong downburst
    winds. Storm propagation into the CO Plains appears possible if a
    consolidated outflow can become established, otherwise lingering
    MLCIN may confine this threat to the immediate lee of the terrain
    features. Overall, the limited longevity of individual cells and
    spatial confinement mitigate the need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 07/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9WDma31wlaAVZl-Fr-ClM52Vf9Z0evU3txnr0ffJJBP8TjXDlMxcBMrZ9d2yoUMWXCFGtCol5= b20R3sf-GzrKVNIKFY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35990553 37000548 38100541 39120526 40510547 41560534
    41730454 41420369 40320334 38050329 37050339 36450370
    36060410 35920453 35800509 35990553=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 08, 2023 15:25:14
    ACUS11 KWNS 081525
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081524=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1461
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1024 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma into the Arklatex and central
    Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081524Z - 081700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Current storms across southeast Oklahoma and western
    Arkansas could intensify which could necessitate a severe
    thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have continued in the vicinity
    of a remnant MCV across eastern Oklahoma in the wake of the
    overnight MCS. Within the last hour, a longer duration thunderstorm
    within this MCV has developed into a bowing segment across Scott
    County, Arkansas with additional storms developing to the southwest.
    SPC mesoanalysis indicates CINH has eroded downstream of this
    activity with temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid
    70s. Therefore, expect ongoing activity to persist through the
    afternoon.=20

    Overall, wind shear in the region is quite weak (20 to 25 knots per
    RAP forecast soundings), but some increased mid-level westerly flow
    in the vicinity of the MCV (35 to 50 knots per SRX and LZK VWP) may
    aid in storm organization. If convective coverage/intensity
    continues to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours, a severe
    thunderstorm watch may be needed.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!43tjodier-DVQ7U3XD4kZWNGvcU02OB1L1p95E7ijFYnY1nVJ4AnZtARNbfZ9Wrmt51clBoK8= 3o6A-_v5-FCY-uCxzg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33989543 34579479 35079398 34869212 33909155 33069208
    32709295 32529367 32689454 32899514 33629552 33989543=20


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