• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1459

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 19:29:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 121929
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121929=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-122100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1459
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

    Areas affected...portions of southern Kentucky into Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 121929Z - 122100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger storms may mature along/ahead of a
    southward sagging cold front this afternoon, with isolated damaging
    gusts possible. A WW issuance is not currently anticipated given the
    expected isolated nature of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...A relatively diffuse cold front continues to sag
    southward, with convective initiation underway across the TN Valley.
    Stronger storms have already materialized across central KY (see
    Mesoscale Discussion 1458 for more details) and additional storms
    may develop farther southwest along the front through the afternoon.
    Deep-layer shear and ascent is expected to be weaker compared to
    points farther northeast as the mid-level trough continues track
    northeast across the Mid Atlantic/New England. Nonetheless, strong
    heating is underway along the TN/KY border contributing to 3000+
    J/kg MLCAPE amid minimal convective inhibition. As such, a couple of
    damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms despite weaker
    tropospheric shear. Given the expected sparse coverage of severe, a
    WW issuance is not currently expected.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9F9sGa3Sd00xNBWVo-wbCAQsK9cVHnMlXcOHATEeqR0KltCei3ygFUYqH67NV81oCbcJ5KoJJ= vsjG4oC3sF0s0AAWl4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35598916 36028870 36338819 36658712 36858649 37118582
    37018553 36678526 36368519 36248524 36008540 35738604
    35578688 35558762 35598916=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 08, 2023 02:33:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 080233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080233=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-080430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1459
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0933 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

    Areas affected...West-central Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...

    Valid 080233Z - 080430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Wind damage and isolated large hail will continue to be
    possible across parts of western and central Oklahoma over the next
    few hours. An isolated severe threat may also occur near the Red
    River in northwest Texas.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Oklahoma City has
    a severe line segment over western Oklahoma, with a more fragmented
    segment in southwest Oklahoma. These two entities are moving
    east-southeastward at around 35 knots. The liner MCS is expected to
    continue tracking along and north of a quasi-stationary front
    located across southern Oklahoma. The airmass along this track is
    moderately unstable with MLCAPE estimated near 1500 J/kg by the RAP.
    The Oklahoma City WSR-88D VWP has about 30 knots of 0-6 km shear
    with some directional shear located in the lowest kilometer. This
    environment will likely enable the MCS to continue having a
    wind-damage threat late this evening. Isolated large hail could also
    occur with the stronger cores. The threat should become more
    isolated as the line moves toward the eastern edge of WW 460.

    ..Broyles.. 07/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8VIlmMb1oJ_eIDnQlrh4stKugw7IsVegliiYfz-kshHCFwYe6wVpc1ae8yDATWFHhHjLT2Vr4= -meYkx7a0TtWTTW7rU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35009738 35879708 36469730 36619782 36629847 36429900
    35979920 34909957 34289982 33929945 33859844 34189779
    35009738=20


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