ACUS11 KWNS 121648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121648=20
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-121915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...Portions of WV into northern VA...western/central
MD...and DC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121648Z - 121915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail
should increase this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
probably be needed.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed as of 1645Z
near the OH/WV border. This activity is occurring just ahead of a
weak surface cold front. These thunderstorms and additional
convective development should spread eastward across much of WV
through the afternoon. With robust diurnal heating occurring and the
presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, around
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to be present across the warm
sector ahead of this activity. This region will be on the southern
periphery of a strong mid-level jet over the Northeast, but modestly
enhanced mid-level westerlies should still support around 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicell clusters and marginal
supercells should occur given the favorable shear. Thunderstorms may
also develop along a pre-frontal trough over parts of northern
VA/western MD and vicinity later this afternoon as residual
convective inhibition eventually erodes. As low-level lapse rates
steepen and DCAPE increases, damaging downdraft winds will become a
concern as thunderstorms gradually increase in coverage and
intensity. Some severe hail may also occur with any cells that can
remain discrete given the modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates
aloft. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed in the
next couple of hours as more convection develops.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6E8OG98hbRJZyMKeikBOJw8JwsMe2NhVZhjehyLcZ3-3AnspW4FClqFXhxzdmGMKp1BowVQhe= AWoSIbkTxnbJW-NT-w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 38378242 39578079 39717948 39717616 39507616 39027647
38587660 38377702 38147825 37837916 37678026 37618129
37808222 38378242=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 071909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071908=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-072145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...far northeast New Mexico...southeast
Colorado...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/Northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071908Z - 072145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are likely to develop from northeast New
Mexico and southeast Colorado by 21Z, and will spread eastward into
western Oklahoma with hail and wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to form over the higher terrain
over eastern NM, near a surface trough and where gusty westerly flow
is enhancing convergence. Meanwhile, an MCV is moving southward over
southeast CO, with winds shifting to northerly. Farther south, air
mass recovery continues from the Panhandles into western OK.

Conditions are becoming favorable for a corridor of severe wind and
hail later this afternoon and through the evening as the
aforementioned NM convection expands and strengthens. Additional
development is possible across the northern Panhandles and close to
the KS border where convergence is maximized.

Modest midlevel westerlies combined with increased speeds in the
upper levels will favor organized severe storms across the area, and substantial instability and lapse rates aloft will lead to locally
very large hail and a few significant wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6FniFiy10C1TX5bfYWCp_0tAASeD-e8YxkwPXKCDRyGaRvytNYQ0HDsx1V1DaDX17GtKXoVka= qrVGGoeNZNn5Cc8Aq4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34720061 34710191 34780299 35100353 35420371 37200451
37470436 37490401 37300353 37190316 37120237 37160208
37020002 36979976 36599945 35969943 35359955 34929996
34740023 34720061=20


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