1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1453

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 02:07:04
    ACUS11 KWNS 120206
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120206=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-120400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1453
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0906 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

    Areas affected...Southern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 120206Z - 120400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a severe hail/wind risk
    heading into the overnight hours, but should remain sufficiently
    isolated and short-lived to negate the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun to develop across southern KS
    into the OK/TX Panhandles over the past 30-60 minutes, with one
    notable cell in the northeast corner of the TX Panhandle displaying
    a three-body scatter spike off the KDDC radar. Despite the increase
    in surface and mixed-layer inhibition with the onset of diurnal
    cooling, isentropic ascent along the migratory frontal surface is
    allowing most-unstable parcels at around 925-900 mb to reach their
    LFCs and access around 2500 J/kg MUCAPE (based on a modified 00 UTC
    DDC sounding). This thermodynamic environment supports strong
    updrafts that may pose a brief hail and downburst threat with any
    stronger storm. However, weak deep-layer shear will limit the
    longevity of any cell and favor disorganized cells and/or clusters.
    Lift along the frontal surface is expected to be somewhat weak given
    the slow southward progression and lack of appreciable
    synoptic-scale ascent. This, combined with the expectation of
    limited storm longevity, precludes the need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Edwards.. 07/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6yI5kkCyuEar_9QnNGBL7X5_KL_VE1cHXaQAD9aBbcDW8-0RibarFtIakMhtuoVIJjbtccuhE= bD6z4IwLIh8Ay3QPq0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36320166 36930162 37810089 38669835 38919660 38819562
    38659512 38219504 37489560 36919773 36499884 35940025
    35900133 36320166=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 07, 2023 11:13:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 071112
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071112=20
    OKZ000-071245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1453
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0612 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western and central OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...

    Valid 071112Z - 071245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe gusts to 65 mph remain possible over the next
    couple of hours across WW 458.

    DISCUSSION...A small, but well organized bow is developing southeast
    across western into central OK early this morning. A swath of 65+
    mph winds have been measured near the apex of the bow by several OK
    Mesonet and regional ASOS sites over the past 1-2 hours. A well
    defined rear inflow jet is depicted in regional radar data, and
    severe gust potential may persist for at least a couple more hours.=20

    As the bow continues eastward, the influence of the low-level jet
    will diminish and a gradual weakening trend is expected as
    convection moves into the I-35 corridor across central OK. Per
    coordination with WFO OUN, an aerial watch extension is planned for
    parts of central OK as damaging wind potential may extend outside
    the current bound of WW 458 for a short time this morning.

    ..Leitman.. 07/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lvslcdOSeC5yXholpCJVnOsd5BOgMiqMrImflvJEr74WiCKTgrFGP-IqJThygxFUqIgx0zuA= 9avLCFo47FWkk6sY4U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36569907 36119792 35669717 35069706 34739707 34669757
    34659827 34849898 35139946 35629996 36009994 36389954
    36569907=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)