• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1452

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 12, 2022 00:33:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 120033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120033=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-120230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1452
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0733 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

    Areas affected...Western Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 120033Z - 120230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms moving off Lake Michigan into western lower
    Michigan in the coming hours may pose an isolated severe wind/hail
    risk. A watch is not anticipated given the isolated nature of the
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...Storms currently moving across Lake Michigan have
    maintained convective intensity per lightning counts, MRMS
    vertically integrated ice data, and cloud-top temperatures despite
    moving over cooler lake waters. This is likely due to weak ascent
    along a diffuse front and the eastward advection of the viable warm
    sector (which features 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as well as 40-45 knots
    of effective bulk shear, both of which were sampled by regional 00
    UTC soundings. This convective environment will likely persist into
    the mid (and possibly late) evening hours as an attendant mid-level
    wave shifts east/southeast across the Great Lakes region and
    continues to augment ascent along the frontal boundary. Prior to
    crossing the lake, this activity was responsible for a few wind
    damage and marginally severe hail reports across eastern WI, and
    should continue to pose a severe hail/wind risk into western MI over
    the next few hours. However, given the isolated nature of the
    convection (and low probability for a substantial increase in storm
    coverage), a watch is not anticipated.

    ..Moore/Edwards.. 07/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5306GBqPuo9T9PgV6-3X7DjIwUjZXc86z3bShXvvEiHTWK18AIn0FqTGA33cc3rT-cSdEICzq= jKYNrSnJfbMfX5Eeb8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 41638729 42378694 43438708 44168680 44558591 44658506
    44348441 43728421 42908429 42198450 41778494 41488533
    41398595 41638729=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 07, 2023 08:30:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 070830
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070829=20
    NEZ000-070930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1452
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456...

    Valid 070829Z - 070930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts may persist another or so before the
    severe threat diminishes with eastward extent.

    DISCUSSION...An organized, likely elevated, line of convection is
    expected to continue developing eastward through early morning.
    Locally strong gusts may accompany this convection in the short term
    as storms traverse an environment characterized by modest
    instability and moderate vertical shear. A 30-40 kt southerly
    low-level jet and sufficient instability will likely maintain
    convection through early morning. However, low-level inhibition and
    weakening instability with eastward extent should limit severe
    potential beyond 09-10z. As a result, a downstream watch is not
    expected once WW 456 expires at 09z.

    ..Leitman.. 07/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6TEeb_parc0Frjdx9Bv-0bAgtujjn6ThzposiczrjgHccDvgcdNZQnzpN0tk3Sf4CT4IAiT3r= 9t_ILy_PrJphIzKkds$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42570110 42489995 41929976 41559997 41420052 41420134
    41530194 41830200 42500137 42570110=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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