• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1451

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 11, 2022 20:41:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 112041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112040=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-112245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1451
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern IL...Western/Central IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112040Z - 112245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been observed over the last hour
    or so along the weak wind shift/area of low-level convergence over
    central IL. Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition
    remains in place, which is likely responsible for the lack of
    convective initiation and somewhat flat appearance to the cumulus
    thus far. Some potential for convective initiation will persist into
    the late afternoon as this area of low-level convergence shifts
    southeastward. Warm low to mid-level temperatures and weak low-level convergence will likely limit the overall thunderstorm coverage,
    duration and intensity. Vertical shear is strong enough to support
    an isolated severe threat if updrafts can mature. Primary severe
    threat would be damaging wind gusts, although some isolated hail is
    possible too.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cJjutXQf2zDjj23Sf6ym9BG1N79xcf75a_GpL-8ZM6w4Yu0mK96PkZ-tzNtls3_9B5jNbTQJ= UomhXid2Se7DfOSOJs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39668979 40498785 40898615 39988604 38948919 39668979=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 07, 2023 07:42:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 070741
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070741=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-070945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1451
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0241 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

    Areas affected...extreme southeast CO...southwest KS...the OK/TX Panhandles...and northwest OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...

    Valid 070741Z - 070945Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe hail and wind risk will shift southeast into the
    Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma over the next
    couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Three supercells from Baca County CO to Meade County KS
    will continue to shift southeast toward the OK Panhandle/northwest
    OK over the next hour. These storms are likely still capable of
    producing large hail, potentially to near 2 inch diameter based on
    MRMS MESH data. While this activity remains semi-discrete, there
    have been signs of some organization into a cluster over the past
    30-60 minutes. VWP data from KAMA indicates a southerly low-level
    jet around 30-40 kt. This low-level jet, coupled with MUCAPE around
    1500-2000 J/kg, will aid in continued organization and intensity
    over the next couple of hours. Most recent storm reports indicate
    1.5 inch hail and gusts to 51 kt. If a more organized cluster/bow
    can evolve over the next 1-2 hours, damaging wind potential may
    increase across the OK/TX Panhandle/northwest OK vicinity.=20

    Latest CAM guidance suggests a southeast surging cluster will
    persist past the 11z expiration time for WW 457, and the overall
    environment should support organized convection persisting toward
    12z. Current tracking shows this activity reaching the edges of the
    watch around 09-10z/4-5 am CDT in some areas. Depending on
    convective trends, a local watch extension or a new downstream
    severe thunderstorm watch may be necessary.

    ..Leitman.. 07/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9mQTPSQPYOVbNJjs2gkHkwURl_foKAveZM5OQ27Xf8_GdtriRJNcxJI3fyy3utvJy_g93CeA5= _oi-p4C5W7KjzBYTOI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 35980181 36730238 37300242 37570228 37720181 37770060
    37359967 36849899 36309886 35849947 35650018 35710120
    35980181=20


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