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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1449

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 11, 2022 16:30:53
    ACUS11 KWNS 111630
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111630=20
    MIZ000-111830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1449
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

    Areas affected...Southwest Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111630Z - 111830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible over the next
    hour or two as the line of storms moving across Lake Michigan moves
    into southwest Lower Michigan.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of storms has intensified as it moves over
    southern Lake Michigan. Low-level stability in place suggests these
    storms are currently elevated. The downstream air mass across
    southwest Lower MI is currently characterized by upper 70s
    temperatures, low 60s dewpoints, and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
    (based on recent mesoanalysis). Some additional heating/moistening
    of the low-levels is anticipated, but low-level stability should
    persist, likely limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, some
    isolated gusty winds appear probable as occasional downbursts
    penetrate the low-level stability. Limited severe coverage should
    preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-eV9aOAXE_iKyftjZmeOc21LzS_MA-Tqx7KfdvKOF0rwhmpKJRkMRnMC-MDneGlmCV1sOfCAU= NaS0KdZud9Q7FiLFuk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 41968656 42398630 42938622 43388643 43538623 43398555
    43038505 42458502 41928536 41798622 41968656=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 07, 2023 04:41:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 070441
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070441=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-070645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1449
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas and
    adjacent portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 455...

    Valid 070441Z - 070645Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 455 continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development will persist
    into the 1-2 AM MDT time frame, with activity continuing to
    gradually grow upscale and organize, accompanied by increasing risk
    for potentially damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...South-southeastward propagation of a lead supercell
    (now south of Lamar) continues, along a remnant surface baroclinic
    zone extending into the Texas Panhandle. At the same time, vigorous
    new thunderstorm development continues to increase to the north
    through east-southeast of this cell, within a strengthening warm
    advection regime which may be maximized around 700 mb.=20=20

    Subsequent evolution into the overnight hours remains a bit unclear.
    However, latest model output indicates a gradual veering of
    southeasterly through southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer
    with time, as a low-amplitude wave slowly shifts east of the
    Colorado Rockies. As this occurs, unstable updraft inflow may be
    maintained on the southern through southwestern flank of the
    stronger convection, but activity may also begin to take on a bit
    more of an easterly component via advection.=20=20

    The stronger updraft inflow may also tend to become increasingly
    rooted above the boundary layer, but a strengthening cold pool
    associated with consolidating convection may contribute to
    increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 07/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9hmn7_45Is7sbJJ2ikJrGB5bzVUpoyEcPQSzWifMWFIrZdUAwy36lSMwphvxqFaRH_aVQLtL1= rfwPS7awqObDB2ycqo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 38430233 37870084 36940135 36860284 37920359 38430233=20


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