• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1448

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 11, 2022 12:30:23
    ACUS11 KWNS 111230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111229=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-111330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1448
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0729 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

    Areas affected...far eastern IA into northwest IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

    Valid 111229Z - 111330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph may persist another 1-2
    hours into parts of northwest IL.

    DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms near the Mississippi River
    will continue to track eastward the next couple of hours into
    northwest IL. Forward speed of this cluster has slowed over the past
    30 minutes or so. Radar trends have also indicated weakening, with 5
    and 7 km CAPPI showing decreasing reflectivity aloft. Furthermore,
    velocity data has decreased considerably compared to an hour ago.
    The 12z RAOB from DVN indicated steep midlevel lapse rates and
    strong instability are present. However, strong boundary-layer
    inhibition and weak midlevel capping are likely playing a role in
    decreasing thunderstorm intensity. The most recent measured gusts
    across eastern IA have been around 35-45 mph. Sporadic gusty winds
    may continue eastward into parts of northwest IL over the next hour
    or two, but a downstream watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Leitman.. 07/11/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9SqpcHUOg1mRJfgg3vTXD1BrI6EahkLNh9JDgEmPoGvgUqIMyLCvZc4NcvHBZXq__YNSA_Let= 8wG9yDqBEfNGPZnPm4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41979102 41989018 41788923 41598906 41328913 41148931
    40948978 40859049 40909095 41099123 41559120 41979102=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 07, 2023 02:58:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 070258
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070258=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-070500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1448
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0958 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Colorado and adjacent portions of
    southwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 455...

    Valid 070258Z - 070500Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 455 continues.

    SUMMARY...An intense supercell, posing a continuing risk for large
    hail, potential for a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts,
    probably will be maintained across and south-southeast of the Lamar
    CO vicinity through 10-11 PM MDT.

    DISCUSSION...While the deep-layer shear is strong, ambient westerly
    mean flow appears a rather modest 20 kt, allowing for a rather
    pronounced rightward (southward) deviate motion to the large ongoing
    supercell approaching the Lamar vicinity. In the presence of
    modestly strengthening southeasterly flow around 850 mb mb (25-30
    kt), this is contributing to strong southerly near-surface updraft
    inflow, roughly aligned with a baroclinic zone earlier enhanced by
    strong differential surface heating. The boundary-layer along this
    frontal zone, extending southeast of the Lamar area into the
    Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, remains characterized by moderately
    large CAPE and likely to maintain intense convective development.=20
    This may continue to include a well-defined supercell structure on
    the southern/southwestern flank of an upscale growing cluster.

    ..Kerr.. 07/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7XBp7VenwpuP8rjX2zSQj36D7pRImbzRt5XBSeGmUPIZx0pBOJgyIZmWf-I-7jYirZLyHwSyc= bIRTxGiAbfVHU3f130$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 38540257 38480195 37450152 37140197 37180284 38220332
    38260263 38540257=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)