ACUS11 KWNS 110012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110012=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-110215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Montana...northeast Wyoming...and
northwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 110012Z - 110215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A strong to severe thunderstorm or two may move across
southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, and perhaps into northwest
South Dakota later this evening. Confidence in storm intensity is
low, but trends will be monitored for the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional reflectivity and lightning trends show thunderstorms developing across southern MT in response to
increasing ascent ahead of an upper-level perturbation. Although a
couple of storms are showing signs of organization, including
supercell structure, RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest that these
storms are moving into an unfavorable thermodynamic environment with
minimal buoyancy (MLCAPE on the order of 100-250 J/kg based on the
latest RAP forecast soundings, which appear to capture the
near-surface moisture well). However, the KBLX VWP is observing
strong mid and upper-level winds associated with the upper wave,
which is supporting elongated, straight hodographs and deep-layer
shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. Given organized convection
is already ongoing, the strong deep-layer shear may compensate for
the weak thermodynamics and allow the ongoing storms to persist well
into southeast MT/northeast WY, and perhaps into northwest SD.
However, confidence is whether this activity will intensify is low
given the thermodynamic concerns. Trends will continue to be
monitored, and the need for a watch will be conditional on observing
persistent intensification over the coming hours.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/11/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4U1RWQRP6hV_FsaUEvo4mdzBNJmy4PQLmgPHAiYMxU1o3_j5hBfTZWrFbzyY7jyyo-nHJfasm= Ro8Am1lEY8D16GpyyI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 45070853 45700834 46030780 45960610 45840463 45450327
45080271 44630285 44250371 44100457 44360543 44820788
45070853=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 061937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061937=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...southeast Wyoming into north-central and northeast
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061937Z - 062130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will begin to develop and gradually increase in
coverage and intensity over the next several hours from southeast
Wyoming southward toward Denver Colorado. The hail threat is
forecast to increase over time, with very large damaging hail later
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show
a pocket of heating roughly from Denver northeastward with
temperatures well into the 70s F. Convergence is also maximized here
due to the local cyclone, and with the easterly upslope regime
extending north to the Laramie Mountains.

Dewpoints of 55-60 F combined with temperatures in the 70s result in
SBCAPE around 2500 J/kg, with steep lapse rates aloft. Impressive
mid to high level winds are also elongating hodographs, creating
very favorable shear profiles for long-lived hail storms.

Current expectation is for an isolated hail threat over the next
hour or two as cells form over the high terrain and interact with
pockets of strong instability/heated air. Eventually a more robust
supercell and damaging hail threat is anticipated as a large swath
of uncapped, strongly unstable air develops by later afternoon, with
threat persisting farther east toward KS by evening.

..Jewell/Grams.. 07/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9YHl-fSldgH1KMXJ15SvpTUkNHWzIY3l1BgR_BzsljHSeFvy6RUeRuTh4WkUwziZOLa0GdIR0= 6jZsrsKp4QEtCX51Y0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41980573 42350562 42510568 42660585 42820574 42780538
42580505 42130449 41690413 40760386 40660383 40280373
39900383 39450421 39190462 39150487 39210503 39550543
39790562 39990586 40070611 40270626 40570620 40740580
40880551 41090535 41370543 41980573=20


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